Egypt: Steady As She Goes
Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman has announced that President Hosni Mubarak was stepping down from the office of president of the republic “and has charged the high council of the armed forces to administer the affairs of the country.” In other words, the Army has taken over. This is the least bad outcome on offer right now, and certainly not the one suggested by President Obama, Vice President Biden, or the Department of State over the past few days.
The scenario announced by Suleiman is exactly what I had in mind when writing, last Monday, that “it is to be hoped that Egypt’s political class and military officers will prevent [the Muslim Brotherhood’s victory] regardless of Obama’s expectations and advice.” The political class and military officers have concluded that Mubarak is a liability, but perhaps more significantly they have concluded that the advice coming from Washington is insanity that must be resisted. They need look no further than yesterday’s declaration by the Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper, that the Muslim Brotherhood is “largely secular” and has “eschewed violence.” With the likes of Clapper making decisions in Washington, the responsible people in Cairo know that they are on their own.
The Army brought down King Farouk, a year short of six decades ago, and it has never left the stage since then. It is competent to pacify the crowds, reestablish normality, and manage the transition. That transition should result in a model of managed democracy—perhaps not unlike Janos Kadar’s Hungary—that will change the nomenklatura but not the essence of the regime. Over the next few months there will be all kinds of reforms and there will be elections, all right, but there will be no chaotic free-for-all from which only some seriously bad people would profit.
The Egyptian Army is a neo-Kemalist institution, well aware that its Turkish counterpart—once powerful and even constitutionally unassailable—has been neutered by democratically elected hard-line Islamists, to the thundering applause of an enfeebled and degenerate West. It will not allow the same thing in Cairo. There will be peace on the Nile, or else there will be blood, but there will be no “democracy” of the kind that serves the ends of those who want to use it as a tool of instituting Sharia.
Obama’s current advocacy of immediate democratic transformation of Egypt indicated the extent to which he shares the same ideological roots with his predecessor. “We will not tire, or rest, until the war on terror is won,” President George W. Bush declared in 2005, and establishing peace and democracy throughout the greater Middle East was the key:
Some who call themselves "realists" question whether the spread of democracy in the Middle East should be any concern of ours. But the realists in this case have lost contact with a fundamental reality… If that region is abandoned to dictators and terrorists, it will be a constant source of violence and alarm… [but] if that region grows in democracy and prosperity and hope, the terrorist movement will lose its sponsors, lose its recruits, and lose the festering grievances that keep terrorists in business.
This is utter nonsense, of course. Democratic transformation of the Middle East, as it is today, is unattainable in practice and undesirable in principle. In practical terms, the United States is heartily disliked throughout the Muslim world, more so than at any time in living memory. Whatever America wishes, the locals will want more of the opposite. Whoever its candidate or political force of American choice, the “Street” will reject them the moment it becomes aware of the connection. In principle, instead of the degenerate and scared royal kleptocrats, Usama’s followers would run Saudi Arabia. And yes, the Muslim Brotherhood would turn Egypt into an Islamic Republic. The scenario is being played out in Turkey as we speak. In Algeria immediately, Morocco after a while, the survival of moderate and pro-Western regimes would be undermined. Obama’s desire that the Middle East grows in democracy would benefit those who would never thank him for making their rise to power possible.
“Democracy” is not feasible outside of the framework of ideas that sustain it. These ideas, in the case of the West, are rooted back into the history of the polis of Greece, the Scriptures, the heresy of the Enlightenment, the notion of liberty, of individual responsibility resulting from the existence of individual free will, of collective creativity embodied in the rendering of classical symphonies and the launching of space missions.
When we see the first Egyptian space shuttle return safely to base, we’ll know that the Army may well risk a genuinely free election.
Tagged as: Egypt, Mubarak
Entries(RSS)
Sir,
Excellent perceptive work as usual.
Is it obvious to the world that the random occurrence of oil under the sand in the area is a major issue? You have not touched on that much. Poor Yemen for example has none and is therefore mostly irrelevant.
That noted, I could never understand until recently, the warmongering of the Neocons to have thousands of our folks dying to take over another country of starving illerate waring tribsmen for a resource which could be acquired for a bit of money. Afghanistan and Iraq being prime examples, post the mother of all debacles, Vietnam.
Looking at the decline curves of the worlds large oil fields is an indication of more problems looming.
Your notes on the naive views of the current pols in D.C. I believe is much to charitable.
Imagine the $13 TRILLION of Federal REserve largess to the banksters of the world instead used to buy Oil from whoever. Dave Stockman had a great call on camera just now that the $1.3 billion "foreign Aid" to Egypt is just rent a dictator money like all the rest gone before. "When will they ever learn."
A most interesting analysis. It seems the Egyptian army was willing to force the issue earlier today and move Mubarak out and not simply stand by and hope against hope that the unrest would blow over or that the "democracy movement" was miraculously going to produce the outcome dreamed up by Western multicultural assumptions.
As for our US intelligence director, reading what he said was alarming enough but watching a video clip of him, as I did this noon on the news, was positively frightening. Perhaps if the Egyptian space shuttle does ever launch we could suggest Mr. Clapper go along and return to whatever planet he was on when he developed his clue-devoid view of the Muslim Brotherhood and Middle Eastern history.
Excellent, as usual.
Just this morning I wrote to a friend: "What I find hilarious (and troubling) is the assumption that the roots of American order exist in some bunch of universals that all peoples everywhere subscribe to, or will subscribe to if given the chance. They are the fruits of a long, often bloody, struggle involving Germanic, Christian, Enlightenment, and classical ideas. Western norms are not some narrative that exists outside of time, bestowed upon mankind by the fates. If only it were that easy. I wish the Egyptians all the best, but whatever that ends up being, it ain't gonna look like 18th century Philadelphia, or 21st century San Francisco."
The Egyptian army, or the mohammedan brotherhood, needs to freeze the $50+ billion Mubarak has socked away. It's probably a luxury-yachtload of gold in Sharm-elsheikh. Anyway Egypt could establish some anti-desertification projects such as planting pistachio and almond trees. That would put several thousands of people to work for a couple of years and stop them from moving to Detroit.
Meanwhile CPAC goes on with Donald Trump and without me.
Well, then, I guess that means Serbia will never be a true democracy -- I don't recall any Serbian space mission. Does Srdja?
And I guess this means the Chinese are in line for a democratic medal from Srdja, since their own space program is coming along quite nicely.
I do hope Serbia never becomes a "true democracy" (btw definition, please!) although she seems to be well on the way, alas... (http://www.chroniclesmagazine.org/2010/10/05/serbia-humiliated)
As for China, the shuttle is a necessary but not necessarily sufficient precondition. While China may have one but not the other, Egypt will have neither for decades to come.
Dr. Trifkovic,
What is your opinion of Mohammed Mossadegh's regime?
Here is another argument against democracy in Egypt.
In the days of aristocratic Prussia, common peasant soldiers had to be threatened with death and execution if they dared desert their armies, and had to be whipped, beaten, and terrorized into submission sometimes. Morale was low. The wars also ended early, because of the incompetent aristocracy and monarch, who refused to hear a war council.
In the 1848 situation, and in the parliamentary European armies that followed, ordinary fighters did not desert their regiment and followed willingly. Elected legislators demanded war councils, whose advice taken in war, so that war could be done more effectively and go on longer with more deaths.
Why should we see a better organized and more bloodthirsty Egyptian mass in democratic control? Better that Egypt has leaders that its people do not like and whose wars they do not want to fight. I am guessing the secret reason Egypt kept peace was that Arabs are so unorganized in war, that military superiors do not coordinate with their subordinates, and villagers serving in regiments don't like their educated English-speaking commander. Once Egypt becomes democratized, their armies will be so egalitarian and united, they might actually start getting organized in war, and begin unleashing their anti-Shi'ia, anti-Ahmadi, anti-Ismaili, anti-Coptic, and anti-Jewish bloodthirst.
We don't want that.
Justin,
Any insight on the next strongman to fall in the middle east? I saw your old friend,Charles Krauthammer, puffed up like a big toad on fox news accusing Obama of doing nothing for the Iranians and everything for the Egyptians. That's all we need now is for monday to bring demonstrations to Iran so we can help loose another country that hates us for our freedom.
Just the end of the beginning. The Army easily took the reins because the protesters are only united on what they didn't want: Mubarak. And there still is no sign of a true united opposition program. I tend to look at phenomena like the price of oil or the Egyptian stock market index as more interesting than what poorly educated helicoptered Western journalists or our politicized "intelligence" chiefs temporarily think. Follow the money not the rhetoric. And if you really want trouble for Israel or fear for Israel depending on the dog you think you have in the fight, it will be a nationalist Egypt following a "Chinese" model of development that would create a real strong rival.If Egypt goes the way of Iran and becomes a floundering "Islamic" state threatening the Canal, Israel is guaranteed decades of unlimited unquestioning American support . If Egypt, as less than a democracy, moves from a begging-bowl kleptocracy to an exporting powerhouse reasonably open to foreign investment and innovation and builds up trade surpluses... why they might even want to own some of our debt. And that really gets you to the table now in Washington. And I bet( meaning using my money) Egyptians are crowding into Chinese language courses within five years.
Dr. Trifkovic, apparently you (and many of the rest of us Chronicles faithful) do not get it. But Charles Krauthammer has chosen to enlighten us with his "Freedom Doctrine." (which I summarize):
(1) The United States will use its influence to help democrats everywhere [especially those in the Middle East] throw off dictatorial rule.
(2) We must allow time for a free press, the rule of law, the freedom to organize, the establishment of independent political parties and the peaceful transfer of power to develop in the Middle East [no matter how long it takes].
(3) The only U.S. interest in the internal governance of these new democracies [?] is to keep foreign and domestic totalitarians from achieving power democratically because they can and will destroy the very democracy that empowered them. [Apparently, we do this by undemocratic means.]
(4) Therefore, it will be U.S. policy to oppose the inclusion of totalitarian parties (Muslim Brotherhood, communists, etc.) in any government in newly liberated Arab states. [How? The devil is in the details. Rest assured that U.S. opposition policy will require considerable, ever increasing defense expenditures.]
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/10/AR2011021005339.html
The neocon faithful are still preaching democracy in the Middle East in spite of the ample evidence that democracy will likely lead to bad results quicker than what otherwise might result without it.
Re Mr. Raimondo's comment at # 5.
Serbia should not aspire to be a "democracy" (one may as well say "demonocracy") but an Orthodox Christian Kingdom. I was disgusted a few years ago to read the present heir's milquetoast letter to the Serbian people, in which he stated that he subscribed to the tenets of secular democracy - and made no mention of the fact that Serbia has no identity whatsoever without the Church - apparently in a bid to be approved by the "international community" and the pro-EU and leftist types back home, hoping pathetically to be welcomed back as some kind of a monarch for show purposes only. May God raise up Christian kings who want to be both really Christian and really kings.
Fr. Steven Allen,
Democracy is an awful system. If most of us are depraved, then it's rule by the depraved majority. I'm not a monarchist, but I'm not sure America wouldn't have been better off remaining under the English monarchy...
Secular approaches to politics result in some frightening ideas, which hopefully never leave the blogosphere. I fear this century will be bloodier than the last. If not faith, then tradition; if neither, then Hell.
Mr. Raimondo may be unfamiliar with the significant participation of Serbian-American engineers in the Apollo space programs, which tangentially makes Dr. Trifkovic's basic point; that there are civilizational factors that either make or break prospects of certain political systems.
Nikola Tesla - the Serbian scientist who many credit with making the twentieth century possible, on technological grounds - was the son of an Orthodox priest. The world awaits a scientist on the same level who was the product of a household headed by an imam.
Said differnetly, culture matters.
As to China, let's not be too sure what they invented as versus what they borrowed or stole from others in terms of space technology. But that's neither here nor there as regards democracy.
Democracy has become something very different from the practice in ancient Greek city states. It is now a political fetish at best and ideological fantasy at worst. Too many in today's intellectual class want to ignore the cultural factors not to mention the factors of scale when it comes to the workability of democracy.
The violent, clanish nature of Islamic society makes democracy culturally unworkable in predominantly Muslim states and the sheer scale of population and geography makes it unworkable in places like China...and the United States as re-conceived as a centralized state. I'm open to hearing explanations otherwise but everyday observation seems to be indicative of it.
I respect Mr. Raimondo's many coherent and well-stated arguments and his website antiwar is a treasure but democracy as panacea for the masses I do not see.
As to "democracy"...we live in a country that has not increased the number of seats in the House of Representatives in one hundred years. Most federal "law" is not actually written by Congress but enacted and enforced by appointed administrative agencies under enabling clauses. Even those laws passed and signed are often re-written by unelected life tenured federal judges to the whims of the judge's beliefs. Whatever "democracy" that actually exists in this country is typically local and under constant siege from Washington. We all know I could go on. Let's re-introduce democracy to America and then worry about the rest of the world's "democratization".
Re:#14---Bravo, Mr.Howard. And a big AMEN!!
You guys are going to love this one: a friend listening to "conservative" talk radio today heard Richard Perle, who would have bought the Brooklyn Bridge if Ahmed Chalabi posted it on Craigslist in 2002, saying that the USA doesn't really know enough about the Egyptian military and lacks concrete information about its inner workings, despite having closely coordinated with it for decades (not to mention funded tens of billions of $).
Richard Perle,Wolfowitz,Kristol et.al are all out in force appearing on major media prescribing the same foreign policy snake oil they peddled before the invasion of Iraq. The same old tonic W. Bush promised as a "more humble foreign policy," before being elected, and the same old poison pill Obama gave us with the surge in Afghanistan. Not a dimes worth of difference after untold billions spent and American lives sacrificed in defense of who and what?
Democracy in Egypt??? Highly unlikely. Democracy as a term was concocted by a few manipulative and mighty Greeks at a time, some thousands of years ago, and perpatuated by the Western world shamelessly throughout the past century, in particular, and has not evolved since. It is the most powerful and previliged that have the most to gain and benefit from it, while blindsided and ignorant masses that are yearning for and hungry for "democracy", are sacrificial lambs, at best. Lies, deceptions, manipulation of any modern societies continues unabated though.
@ 13 Eagle:
RE: Tesla / Tech aspect: Couldn't have said it better myself. Excellent.
Re. Eagle's astute remark that "[t]he world awaits a scientist on the same level who was the product of a household headed by an imam": seeking to convery the same message I noted in the print issue of "Chronicles" ("World of War," December 2010, p. 22) that the history of Islam has been that of a long decline
without a fall:
"What started as a violent creed of invaders from the desert soon ran out of steam, but the collective memory of earlier successes lingered on as proof of divine approval and superiority.
"It was not until 1683 that the menace to Europe was finally crushed at the gates of Vienna, but for long before that the Islamic world had little interesting to say or do. Not even a prime location at the crossroads of the world could act as an antidote to the slow poison of Islamic obscurantism.
"The Ottoman interlude concealed and postponed the latent tension between the view of world history as the fulfillment of Islam and its triumph everywhere, on the one hand, and the reality of squalor and decadence, on the other.
"The nature of the problem has always been spiritual. When the Ottomans realized that something went seriously wrong two centuries ago, their view of knowledge remained that of a commodity that could
be imported and used. Western engineers, military officers, and doctors have been training their Muslim students ever since, but the latter never managed to proceed beyond what had been imparted to them.
"The problem is insoluble: Muslims want the fruits, but not the culture itself. Western discipline, cohesion, ingenuity, and prosperity are incompatible with instant gratification, inherent to the Muslim mind ever since Muhammad resorted to divine intervention
in his lust for his daughter-in-law. There is no creative spark from within that could use foreign novelties to transform the society and catapult it into modernity. [ ... ]
"A few selfprofessed Muslims have been seeking a more rational variety of their faith for over a century. As Clement Huart pointed out in 1907, however, until the newer conceptions, as to what the Koran teaches as to the duty of the believer towards non-believers, have spread further and have more generally leavened the mass of Moslem belief and opinion, it is the older and orthodox standpoint on this question which must be regarded by non-Moslems as representing Mohammedan teaching and as guiding Mohammedan action...
"The willingness of a few to risk condemnation (or worse) by rejecting the irrational and stifling tenets of historical Islam may be laudable, but it will do nothing to modify Islam as a doctrine."
“The problem is insoluble: Muslims want the fruits, but not the culture itself. Western discipline, cohesion, ingenuity, and prosperity are incompatible with instant gratification, inherent to the Muslim mind ever since Muhammad resorted to divine intervention
in his lust for his daughter-in-law. There is no creative spark from within that could use foreign novelties to transform the society and catapult it into modernity. [ ... ]
The western tradition of cohesion,ingenuity,prosperity ... are indeed incompatible .... with Modernity's views of multiculturalism, religion and servility. I can't speak for the Mohammadans, but I imagine once they steal or develope nuclear weapons, most modernist will also take a differnt look at their meaning of the word,progress, as well.
If Mubarak indeed ripped off $50 billion from his country's public treasury, the money must be found and returned to its rightful owners. That kind of cash can buy a lot of influence and weaponry.
The benefits of dictatorship must be rising these days. Back in the late Nineties, Mobutu Sese-Seko, the deposed Congolese strongman, absconded with an estimated $30 billion. Dictatorship -- it's nice work if you can get it.
Gentlemen,
Niall Ferguson has a sharp review of the Military take over of Egypt and the U.S. dealing with foreign policy in general.
Seems a bit slanted to Israeli / Neocon interests, but when it comes to the Muslim Brotherhood replacing the army I am very skeptical.
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/no-happy-clappy-democracies-msnbcs-mika-shocked-because-pictures-from-egypt-seem-so-nice-while-harvards-niall-ferguson-schools-her-on-muslim-brotherhood-and-caliphate/
Like it, or not, Osama has capably established a new "new wave" (willfully or accidentally). By divesting himself personally from the Jihad he has allowed every single Muslim to be a WMD - to his own taste, liking or choice.
His pro-islam advocacy has forced secular countries to reconsider their state of affairs. Without an ounce of prejudice it is fairly obvious that many Arab countries populations are vastly under-educated and that this "new age" lumpen-proletariat will replace one tyrant by an oligarchy of tyrants. Once Sharia becomes law of the land there is no turning back. The wave has swept far beyond Egypt. I predict the wave to spread all the way to Morocco (Atlantic) and as far south as Bab-el-Mandeb. It remains to be seen how many kings, rulers and sheiks will seek asylum in the U.S.A. Not to mention that granting asylum could be unwise - but our Congress can never outdo itself in unwise decisions, they are always capable of more. If Detroit MI. and Newark N.J. have the vast Muslim presence it wouldn't surprise me to see some similar movement towards the abolishing our Constitution and establishing Sharia within their city limits. Only a few years ago we laughed when German High court ruled that the Muslim husband has the right to beat his wife for insubordination. What we are witnessing today is very much like the The Early Caliphs and Umayyads (610-750 AD), seems to me.
Egypt has 90 million people, but Libya has oil -- and a lot of it. Looks like Kadafy is on his way out. He's using "African" mercenaries to kill arabs according to al-Jazeera. I find it odd that the population has turned on the strong-man like a pack of rabid dogs.
#26 Etienne,
Yes, but they say he and his family are going to do everything they can (down to the last bullet and bomb) to maintain the Union!!--- Of tribes that make up Libya!!