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The desert kingdom fundamentally depends on continued theocratic oppression at home – kept manageable by carefully crafted redistributive schemes – and on U.S. support abroad. Its survival is helped by the deep divide between different would-be heirs to the kleptocratic regime.
To put it succinctly, there are some Islamists opposed to the royal thieves in the name of scripturally ordained purity. There are also are some Western-educated liberals who would like Saudi Arabia to be a bit more like Jordan and Egypt, perhaps even like Lebanon or Turkey. Neither party is a “party” – it would require their heads to stand up and be counted, and likely get chopped off – but both exist beneath the all-pervasive Gleichschaltung of the second-worst totalitarian regime on this planet (after the proverbial North Korea).
The theoretical scene is reminiscent of Egypt at the time of Mubarak’s fall, when all those young, tweeting, English-fluent secularists at Cairo’s Tahrir Square provided the Kerensky-style opening for Mohammad Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood. The difference is fundamental, however. In Egypt, joining the opposition under Mubarak could cost you a few years in a jail filled with your like-minded jihadist buddies. In Saudi Arabia, belonging to opposition means beheading at dawn… or a very long spell in solitary confinement on a starvation diet.
If and when it is faced with the threat of demise, the Saudi regime will not agonize. It will let the puritan Sunni opposition carry the torch – under a mutually acceptable arrangement concerning the personal and financial safety of the extended al-Saud family, of course – rather than risk the prospect of “prophet” Muhammad’s homeland coming under infidel rule. The nightmare of women driving cars, Philippino maids freely celebrating Christmas (oh, horror!), or Western expats having a tipple is verboten for ever. Having aided and abetted ISIS for years, the Saudi “princes” will know how to play the finale as the Falcons are readied on the runways to take them to London, Miami, or Marbella.
This is some light years away from Sisi’s altogether welcome intervention in the summer of 2013. Egypt was faced with a clear-cut choice between the Brotherhood’s creeping Islamistan or yet another decade or two of military authoritarianism – and Egypt has enthusiastically embraced the latter. In the meantime, however, in KSA the royal patronage is extended to all sorts of sotto-voce, “moderate Islamic” and quasi-radical options, provided they all agree not to rock the boat. Joining the absurdly named “Consultative Council” may bring rich rewards, even. To some.
Saudi Arabia will collapse, sooner than many in Washington suspect, because it is inherently not capable of reform and renewal. It is also doomed because the social and economic pressures within the desert kingdom cannot be contained on the basis of the implied social contract of “we pay you to stay idle, you pay us back by not rebelling.”
It is to the benefit of the regime that its puritan Islamist and “pro-Western” secularist opponents do not and cannot see eye to eye. When the place explodes, as it will in the next three to five years, there will be an almighty panic inside the Beltway. Good. Finally. And good riddance to the al-Sauds, when it comes. Evil, ugly, primitive, smelly lot of in-bred degenerates.
[Part I here; Part II here]
"It is to the benefit of the regime that its puritan Islamist and “pro-Western” secularist opponents do not and cannot see eye to eye." An ideal opportunity, perhaps even an imperative, for the "West" (i.e the New York, London, Paris Axis) to make some concessions to Arab nationalist sentiment at the expense of the Hasidic People's Republic so as to encourage and incentivize the "West's" clientelae in SA, as well as regionally. If only we could somehow get Sheldon Adelson to subscribe to CHRONICLES, we might have a chance.
"Arab nationalist sentiment," as distinct from the Islamist-Arabian melange, was soundly defeated with the decline of Nasserism in Egypt under Sadat and the collapse of Baathism in Iraq after the 2003 war. Bashar is theoretically its heir, but he has his hands full trying to fend off the U.S.-Saudi financed, supplied and trained unholy jihadist alliance.
Defeat doesn't mean disintegration. Arab nationalism is still potentially a potent force in the M-E. ( I once had the pleasure of working with a retired general from the Egyptian army. He was a Copt. He left Egypt after Sadat's assassination. Told me that relations between Copts and Moslems started worsening *after* Sadat's demise.) Maybe the Pick of YHWH's Litter should aid Bashar if he's so crucial and they're so imperilled. Worth a try, yes? You seem curiously unaware/uninterested in any Jewish-Israeli "melange" complicating things in the area.
Dr. Trifkovic is a genius. No one could describe the Saudi regime better - "evil, ugly, primitive, smelly lot of in-bred degenerates". Unfortunately, while doing business with Saudis, most of these attributes had rub off on American society, as the old saying goes "You are who you surround yourself with".
Saudi Arabia's main export was always Wahhabi Islam, a most vile ideology that is the wellspring of Jihad is around the world. Whether it be Al Qaeda, ISIS , Boko Haram and Al Shabaab, all of them have the same puritanical Islam that Saudi Arabia promotes. The Saudi connections to terrorist who commit atrocities the world over , including the U.S in particular are well know. Which begs the question , why does the U.S continue to support the Saudis when they actively promote and are the source of terrorism and its supporting Jihadi ideology? The same goes for Turkey and Pakistan who support and shield terrorists too, at the expensive of the American tax payer. How can the U.S and the West expect to defeat global jihad, when they support the treacherous islamists states( Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan)?I yearn for the day when the whole Islamic world implodes on its self once and for all! Thanks for the articles Dr. Trifkovic.
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