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above: Results by state, shaded according to winning candidate's percentage of the vote 2016 [Image by: Ali Zifan / CC BY-SA 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons, cropped and resized]

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Trump Takes the Lead in Non-Mainstream Poll

The latest poll by Democracy Institute (DI), a nonpartisan polling firm that accurately predicted Brexit and the 2016 U.S. election, shows President Donald Trump pulling ahead of Joe Biden and winning the Electoral College with 319 votes.

The DI poll found that Trump leads Biden by 3 percentage points on the national stage, 48 to 45. In swing states, namely Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Trump has an average lead of 7 percentage points, 49 to 42. In Florida, Trump leads Biden by 3 percentage points (47 to 44), while he is ahead of Biden by 4 points (47 to 43) in New Hampshire. Likewise, in Minnesota—whose largest city, Minneapolis, is where the George Floyd incident took place—Trump is up by 4 points.

The DI polling comes in stark contrast to a slew of other polling data released in conjunction with mainstream media which shows Biden holding a substantial lead over Trump.

The DI poll has Trump winning 53 percent of white voters, 19 percent of black voters, and 39 percent of Hispanic voters. Moreover, 82 percent of Trump’s supporters are enthusiastic about backing their candidate, while only 40 percent of Biden’s supporters say the same.

The recent poll was calculated through a likely voter screen and with a D+2 partisan weighting (which means polled Democrats outnumber Republicans by 2 percent).

“Trump being up by a couple of points nationally isn’t so crazy,” Patrick Basham, DI's founding director, explained to me during his appearance on the Cotto/Gottfried podcast. He said that Trump is 3 points ahead of Biden in DI's national poll, which has a margin of error of 2.5 points, putting him just outside of the margin of error. 

Basham said there are factors working to depress Democratic votes. The fact that large University campuses will be closed in November is most significant. The University environment, Basham elaborated, plays a major role in turning out young voters who tend to vote Democrat. This is one likely reason that DI’s data shows Democrat votes down nationally. For this reason, Basham says no one should be surprised if Trump “more than holds his own.”

I asked Basham about the enthusiasm gap, which he said is “very important,” as evidenced by the fact that every candidate who has trailed in supporter enthusiasm has lost since 2004. He explained that Trump’s “vote tally is lower than his approval tally.” This means that many polled voters approve of Trump but are not yet committed to voting for him. “That means he has room to grow,” according to Basham. This is real news, but it will receive minimal coverage.  

You will not likely hear how well Trump is doing with black voters, either. Even establishment pollsters Zogby and Rasmussen place Trump’s black support somewhere above 20 percent. One cannot count on the mainstream media for honest numbers.

YouGov, which partners in polls with CBS, shows Joe Biden racing ahead of Donald Trump with a 10-point lead nationwide. However, YouGov did not specify how many Democrats it polled in relation to Republicans. They published a 112-page analysis of the survey which never mentions partisan breakdown. Also, the survey consists of registered, as opposed to likely, voters. Many people register to vote but never actually vote. Therefore, a registered voter is not necessarily a likely voter.

What is more, it is true that Democrats outnumber Republicans in voter registration by four points nationally, but that does not justify dramatically over-sampling Democrats, which has become common. Consider, for instance, Ipsos (Reuters) which oversampled Democrats by 13 percent, Quinnipiac University by 10 percent, Shaw & Company Research/Anderson Robbins Research (Fox News) by 6 percent, Siena College (New York Times) by 9 percent, Hart Research (NBC/Wall Street Journal) by 12 percent, Marist College (PBS) by 7 percent, and—when it surveyed for The Economist—YouGov by 11 percent.

These polls get lots of media attention because they are commissioned by mainstream outlets. None of them, however, accurately predicted the outcome of the 2016 election.

Joseph Ford Cotto

Joseph Ford Cotto is, along with Chronicles Magazine Editor in Chief Paul Gottfried, the co-host of Cotto/Gottfried, an online current events program.

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Das
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Thank u
 
 

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Just Visiting
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New NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds Biden ahead by 8 points among registered voters, 51% to 43%, with more than 50% of voters disapproving of Trump’s job performance. The poll finds nearly 90% of voters have firmly made up their minds. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/after-tumultuous-month-news-biden-maintains-national-lead-over-trump-n1240501
 
 

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YourLocalEyeDoc
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Trump will again win the electoral votes and retain his Presidency. And deservedly so. He is trying to make medications more affordable, taking measures to protect our National Parks, and also protect us from countries that do not have our best interests at heart, namely China. And if Trump who is an accomplished businessman does not think China is a good business partner, perhaps we should take his advice. Fauci just reported that even after the vaccine is released, masks will continue to be required. There is no end game for the Dems. Or Biden. They will continue to tell you how you can live your life for many years to come if he were elected (which he won’t be). Kids were so depressed from the spring. Social isolation causes damage to these children emotionally never mind academically and long-term, this thing isn’t feasible. Sweden has the answer. We need to embrace it as the only logical alternative here. If you vote Biden, masks could be here for many many years. And you think your problems are bad now, just wait. I love our President. He has our best interests at heart. Lifetime politicians become that way for a reason: they owe so many favors that you can be sure they are only puppets speaking propaganda. Well I reject that propaganda and the socialist flavor of the current political climate. Just say no to socialism and take back your freedoms. Don’t let government dictate how you live your life and how happily you live it. Think of your kids too. MAKE. AMERICA. GREAT. AGAIN. NO. MORE. BULLSH*T TRUMP2020💓
 
 

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DennisonCMS
I've been a democrat basically because I live in Minnesota. Anyone that believes what the Democrats are spewing right now has to be mentally challenged. They have destroyed their cities, lied, used minorities (repeatedly), and have absolutely no consistent plan. Their plan seems to be whatever and whoever is in front of them at the moment. I will never vote for another democrat as long as I live.
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