Tag Archive for ‘Egypt’
Contrary to the predictions of many Western pundits and journalists, Egypt’s “deep state”—seemingly on the defensive during Morsi’s year in power—has been able to control the situation and stabilize the country (as we predicted it would be three weeks after the coup).
In the near term, bet on the men with the guns.
The really important news from Egypt is not the “martyrdom” of some hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood supporters and underage human shields set up for sacrifice by their leaders. It is not the brutality of the security forces fighting the emergence of a Khalifate within the state. It is the targeting of dozens of Christian churches, institutions and individuals all over Egypt by the MB, instigated by the leaders and eagerly carried out by the rank-and-file.
The U.S. policy on Egypt is in disarray, and both camps distrust America—the Muslim Brotherhood by default, its opponents from experience.
The ongoing crisis in Egypt, prima facie, is a case of irresistible force (the army) meeting an immovable object (the Muslim Brotherhood, MB).
Mohamed Morsi’s removal from power is not a “massive blow” to political Islam, much less the proof of its failure. It is the result of the Muslim Brotherhood’s attempt to monopolize all power, coupled with the MB government’s gross economic and social mismanagement.
Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman has announced that President Hosni Mubarak was stepping down from the office of president of the republic “and has charged the high council of the armed forces to administer the affairs of the country.” In other words, the Army has taken over. This is the least bad outcome on offer right now, and certainly not the one suggested by President Obama, Vice President Biden, or the Department of State over the past few days.
The cry of the protestors in Cairo, as they greet the news of the military coup that has toppled Hosni Mubarak. What’s next? An interim government, perhaps the troika proposed by Mohammed El Baradei, with the reality of power remaining in the hands of the military. Then comes the countdown to the day when the first emergency blows up–perhaps the disclosure that the Mossad is fomenting unrest. Then a struggle between the Brotherhood and the military or a union. How many months till the emergence of a popular leader, and how many years before that popular leader is denounced as the evil dictator? Oh, I forgot. The Fellahin have been liberated by Twitter, and everything is going to be all right.
It is essential to take William (“Bill”) Kristol seriously. He has been so utterly wrong on so many things (America’s ability to run the world, NATO, Turkey, the Balkans, Chechnya, Iraq, Sarah Palin, Russia, Iran, Georgia, John McCain, missile defense . . . ) that his pronouncements merit respect. Being consistently wrong—in the fleeting guise of things measurably empirical, that is—they contain a deeper wisdom.