Has the Bell Begun to Toll for the GOP?
Among the more controversial chapters in Suicide of a Superpower, my book published last fall, was the one titled, "The End of White America."
It dealt with the demographic decline of the white majority and what it portends for education, the U.S. economy, politics and national unity.
That book and chapter proved the proximate cause of my departure from MSNBC, where the network president declared that subjects such as these are inappropriate for "the national dialogue."
Apparently, the mainstream media are reassessing that.
For, in rare unanimity, The New York Times, The Washington Post and USA Today all led yesterday with the same story.
"Whites Account for Under Half of Births in U.S.," blared the Times headline. "Minority Babies Majority in U.S.," echoed the Post. "Minorities Are Now a Majority of Births," proclaimed USA Today.
The USA Today story continued, "The nation's growing diversity has huge implications for education, economics and politics."
Huge is right.
Not only are whites declining as a share of the population, they are declining in real terms. Between 2010 and 2011, the number of births to white women fell 10 percent. The median age of white Americans, now 43 and rising, means that half of all white women have moved past the age that they are ever likely to bear more children.
White America is a dying tribe.
What do these statistics mean politically? Almost surely the end of the Republican Party as a national governing institution.
Republicans now depend on the vanishing majority for fully 90 percent of their votes in presidential elections, while the Democratic Party wins 60 to 70 percent of the Asian and Hispanic vote and 90 to 95 percent of the black vote.
The Democratic base is growing inexorably, while the Republican base is shriveling.
Already, California, Illinois and New York are lost. The GOP has not carried any of the three in five presidential elections. When Texas—where whites are a minority and a declining share of the population—tips, how does the GOP put together an electoral majority?
Western states like Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona, which Republican nominees like Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan swept almost every time they ran, are becoming problematic for the party.
Thus the GOP refrain: We must work harder to win over Hispanics.
Undeniably true. But how does the GOP appeal to them?
Fifty-three percent of all Hispanic children are born out of wedlock, with no father in the home and many of the moms themselves high school dropouts. Most Hispanic kids thus start school far behind.
In tests of fourth-, eighth- and 12th-graders, their scores are closer to those of African-American kids than whites and Asians. Their dropout rate matches that of black kids. Absent affirmative action, not only are America's colleges and universities but her professions are going to look far more Asian and white than the national population.
Not a formula for social peace.
Comes the reply: We must spend more to close the racial gap in test scores. Yet, according to The Washington Examiner, in the District of Columbia, the community where we have spent perhaps the most per capita to close the racial gap in test scores, the racial gap is by far the largest in the nation.
Not only do we seem not to know how to close it after four decades of plunging trillions into public schools, the country is tapped out. We are in the fourth consecutive year of trillion-dollar deficits, and our largest and richest state, California, just discovered its deficit has exploded to $16 billion.
And why should Hispanics vote Republican?
The majority of Hispanics are among that half of the population that pays no income tax. Why should they vote for a party whose major plank is that it will cut income taxes?
Hispanics benefit disproportionately from government programs.
Government puts their kids in Head Start before public school and provides them with Pell grants and student loans after public school.
From kindergarten through 12th grade, government educates their kids for free. Government provides them with free or subsidized health care through Medicaid and clinics. Government provides their families with public housing and rent supplements. Government provides the food stamps that feed the family. Government provides them with an annual earned income tax credit, a check just for working.
Government provides all these things, and what are Republicans going to do? They promise to cut government.
Again, why should Hispanics vote Republican?
Establishment Republicans say the party should support amnesty for illegal aliens. Yet this would make millions more eligible for federal programs in a country sinking in debt and mean millions more Hispanics going to the polls, and millions more coming to America in anticipation of the next amnesty.
How would that help the GOP?
By endlessly expanding Great Society programs, by lopping taxpayers off tax rolls, by supporting open borders and endless immigration from the Third World, the Republican Party, out of sheer nobility of character, has probably ensured its impending departure from history.
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A silver lining in the black cloud---demise of the Republican party!
On Clyde Wilson's "silver lining" about the bad news in Pat's article: Mr. Wilson is quite right to hope for the demise of the Republican Party. From a recent article of mine, here's why I agree.
The curtain falls on the Ron Paul campaign and other depressing thoughts
It was inevitable that Ron Paul, the greatest Republican of our time, would not get the nomination of the stupid party; and that it would go instead to the man of his most recent word, Mitt Romney. I had hoped that Dr. Paul could break through the iron curtain that keeps honest men out of the Republican Party. In the alternative, I hoped that he would give up on it and run on a third-party ticket, but it seems that that is probably too late, as Gary Johnson has captured the Libertarian nomination. I shall not be voting for him, as it is reported that, unlike Dr. Paul, he is pro-abortion.
Though I will not vote for Obama, I would rather have Obama win again instead of Romney--who would give us milquetoast supreme court judges and otherwise wimp out and compromise with the evil party stalwarts like Reid, Pelosi, and the other Pecksniffians who inhabit the fever swamps of the Potomac. It would be far better to bring back Torquemada to begin an Inquisition or a purge of the Republican Party, to root out the pseudos, complete with litmis tests, and to bring it back to its first principles at ground zero.
In the meantime, there are weapons states can use in civil resistance–interposition, nullification, even secession to slow down, or perhaps even stop the madness. And individuals need not walk in lockstep with the unconstitutional edicts issued from Washington. That will take courage, but that’s all we have left. Infiltrating the “system” usually doesn’t work for long, for the infiltrators soon become co-opted by the fetching glamours of Washington–as they “grow in office” and receive the accolades of The Washington Post, The New York Times, and all the other enemies of freedom.
Judge Bartley,
While I hope we get there someday (and sooner than later), I'm afraid that we're a long, long way from States actually moving to assert their rights and sovereignty. The Chris Christie's and Bob Mcdonnell's and such seem to only be really concerned about their State as a secondary motive. The primary motive is to groom one's self to be picked as a Vice President or for a later run for the national Senate or even Presidency. Can you imagine a Chris Christie or Bob Mcdonnell openly defying a Republican federal administration? A Democratic administration, sure, because those are brownie points towards playing on a Federal Stage, but when push comes to shove they will not really rock the boat against the folks they hope will support them for whatever their later bid happens to be.
Rare are the Ron Pauls that care more about a cause than a career. We'll need a better and more pure crop of humble civil servants to appear before we can pin much hope on the States finally rising to shake the national yoke from off their shoulders. God willing it will be in my children's lifetime, although who can ever know the hour?
As I was reading Mr. Buchanan's column, I thought of Dr. Wilson. "I'll bet he'd say that every cloud has its silver lining," I thought, "and I'll be proud to back him up on that sentiment." Lo and behold! Whose should be the first response to the column on this site but Dr. Wilson's, saying precisely what I'd supposed he would? I would be considerably less honorable than I hope to be if I didn't report this coincidence.
The Republican Party must die. It has been the party of centralized, militarized, totalitarian national administration at least since its inception. In many places, it went off-course into affirming Christianity, morality, honesty, and the integrity of traditions and communities during the 20th century, but the paradoxical rise of contemporary conservatism under the prince of opportunists, the arch-subversive Ronald Reagan, wrenched it back on track to the hegemony of economic absolutists established by the neocons and the Bushies.
I have no idea how to lay the GOP down. Maybe Mr. Buchanan is correct, that the decline of the white population will destroy its base, and it will collapse. Perhaps it is possible, after all, to change it almost unrecognizably from its present state, but I doubt it.
Vince:
You have said nothing to cure my depression; it has worsened with your prophetic words. I guess I'll live through it well enough, but I have six children, 23-41 who stand to be primary victims of the moral, economic, and legal that is yet to come--unless we can muster up the collective courage to disregard the unconstitutional edicts coming from Washington and restore our states, nunc pro tunc, to the status they had before, and for a considerable time after, the Founder's Era. Otherwise, we will all become the pill-popping populace of Brave New World or was it 1984.
Anyway thanks for writing. Best to you.
Well said, Ray!
There is another silver lining to contemplate. When the GOP collapses and we live in a one-party state with the policies of our glorious leader, B-O (you have to admit, he has the perfect initials for his politics), capturing the vote, guess who will be blamed for the ultimate collapse when there are no more fat-cats to float the plebes? It won't be the GOP; they'll have been out of power for too long. Who knows, a civil war or race war may even be fun.
Correction: "moral, economic, and legal COLLAPSE"
Quick, somebody remind me why I should oppose the barbarian Muslims at the gate? Jeepers, if this country is gonna get hosed anyway and many of my enemies are also Muslim enemies, what's the point? What are the alternatives? Huns, Mongols, Vikings? Nope, looks like we have to start all over with the Neanderthals. The other good news is that every sin in Islam has a ready fix, you can decide not to beat your wife, much, and if you are busy, you can even skip church services. And, if caught in a really bad infraction, you can always blame the Jews. My doctor tells me too much bacon and booze is bad for my health...Hello? What's the number of that mosque again?
The Democratic Party abandoned the South; however, the South abandoned itself by turning to its enemy: the Republican Party. We Southerners have become the willing Janissary of the party and the empire which "drove ol' Dixie down." We are, disproportionately, the bleeding edge of the empire's wars abroad and in Pavlovian fashion recite its Jacobin pledge and sing its "Battle Hymn" in our very churches, churches whose antecedents were plundered, burned and reconstructed by the radical Republicans and their sputniks. If the South is to fade away, let us do so without being the thralls and the fools of the Republican Party. Perhaps we can be like Sampson of old; blinded, chained and emasculated, he managed by God's grace and providence in a last act of his calling, to bring the palace down around and on the Philistine's head. May God grant us at least that privilege.
Who knows, a civil war or race war may even be fun.
Interesting proposition, and given the sheer silliness of about 98 percent of Democratic office-holders these days, I can see where the prospect of civil war might sound almost like a game.
The caveat is this: whenever you're playing for money, the game is only fun when you win. Imagine the demographics and numbers of a civil war of the sort you hypothesize and you understand the risks involved.
If war can be averted, even against a silly opponent, that is always preferable. Never underestimate the sheer scale of destruction of a nasty conflict.
Moses Nicholas,
"The caveat is this: whenever you're playing for money, the game is only fun when you win."
Yes, I have never met a compulsive gambler who admitted to having a problem when he was up. Too big to fail is always the predominate attitude before bitch fortune spins the wheel down. Charles II could never get a grip on financial fools blinded by greed and willing to bring their monarch down to satiate their own lusts; and when the state in the form of One cannot get it done, the state in the form of everyman sure as heck will never get it done. Divide and conquer is good for a while such as the current duopoly we have endured for years, every man for himself is usually the last phase so it looks like we are nearing the end.
"Playing for money" might not have been the right terminology, but the gambling example was as close as I could get to demonstrate something that is (supposedly) "just a game" and yet there are actual stakes with real-life consequences to use as an analogy to caution against seeing a war as "fun." "Playing for stakes" might have been more resonant.
Of course you are right, though. We are nearing the end. The frightening question is who - or rather what - will emerge victorious from the flames?
we are surely " nearing the end " , when some moronic cyberwarrior thinks he/we might find a civil or racial war "fun", and instead of condemning the sentiment as childish stupidity, we find it an "interesting proposition" . and yes, i note the caveats in paragraphs 2 and 3. not sufficient.
we are surely " nearing the end " , when some moronic cyberwarrior thinks he/we might find a civil or racial war "fun", and instead of condemning the sentiment as childish stupidity, we find it an "interesting proposition" . and yes, i note the caveats in paragraphs 2 and 3. not sufficient.
Yet another problem with Internet is that absent an overdose of punctuation, clever capital-manipulation and emoticons, one cannot make a clear distinction between a serious proposition and dry irony. Nonetheless, I confess that in any case I didn't take the original insinuation all that seriously and that it is "interesting" only in the sense of being "momentarily amusing." Most people who SERIOUSLY think war of any sort "might be fun" have never fought in one, nor even known anyone who died as a result of one; this being Chronicles and comments being moderated, I tend to give others the benefit of the doubt.
dry irony is "momentarily amusing". a proposition/insinuation/idea becomes "interesting" after some consideration.
The "dry irony" bit was also meant to apply to my observation that the suggestion was "interesting." I had hoped it would be obvious my cheek had a measurable amount of grip on my tongue, but as I said, the Internet is a very emotion-poor channel of communication.
not to worry. soon babel fish will replace the internet or we evolve into kakrafoonians. meanwhile, you fear what might "emerge" from the ashes- i'm horrified by what the flames will consume- be it mother continent or "banal civilization".
meanwhile, you fear what might "emerge" from the ashes- i'm horrified by what the flames will consume- be it mother continent or "banal civilization".
Asking which one to fear the most is a bit like asking whether to be horrified that the poison I swallowed will kill me or that my death was engineered serve some dastardly design. Though of course I suspect I'm preaching to the choir.
A lot of good could be done by laws requiring the use of English. Let's put the Interstate Commerce clause to work. Surely it's not too much to ask newcomers to America to learn English.
On the other hand, I note that nearly all these minorities are more socially conservative than the white establishment. Until they have been properly indoctrinated they will be unlikely to complain about nativity scenes or worry about women's rights. I would expect Hispanics and Asians to be less sympathetic to gay adoption (the real issue, and if we realized it we'd do a lot better on the gay marriage issue.)
The GOP may need to attract hispanics to survive, and could attract them with a populist agenda of social conservatism and fiscal me-tooism. This won't happen because neoconservatives will not allow the creation of a successful socially conservative party. They want the GOP to win on fiscal conservatism and military adventurism or not win at all.
If I had to choose between living in a Spanish speaking America and living in a pagan America I would choose the former. I also note that in DC I do not find myself apprehensive regarding the Mexican Americans, who are ubiquitous. I don't expect them to mug me or steal from me or shoot me. They seem pretty benign. I do find myself nervous about the blacks, since incident reports often describe the suspect as a black male. But I do wish the hispanics would learn English, since in an emergency the inability to communicate would be a problem, and I think it is not I but the migrant who should learn a new language.
A lot of good could be done by laws requiring the use of English. Let's put the Interstate Commerce clause to work. Surely it's not too much to ask newcomers to America to learn English.
This is what is known as an "official language." This is the stuff of Third World countries with a multiplicity of indigenous languages and an inept central power whose maniacal ways eclipse anything we've known in the U.S. (with the possible exceptions of Miami and Chicago).
No, thanks.
On the other hand, I note that nearly all these minorities are more socially conservative than the white establishment. Until they have been properly indoctrinated they will be unlikely to complain about nativity scenes or worry about women's rights. I would expect Hispanics and Asians to be less sympathetic to gay adoption (the real issue, and if we realized it we'd do a lot better on the gay marriage issue.)
The numbers in which they came out for B.H. Obama do not suggest that they care much, if at all, about those issues and that, indeed, they are very likely to put into power ridiculous hippies without thinking about what they're doing.
And if anyone seriously believes that Hispanic immigration will spell the end of abortion and a reversal of the decline of American Catholicism, I would like to point out that Hispanics have higher abortion rates than whites in the U.S., and that the multiplicity of bizarre Pentecostal/premillenarian/evangelical/other pseudo-Calvinist temples that have popped up along Miami's famed Calle Ocho like so much Kudzu weed in the past few decades suggests that they apostatize at higher rates than non-Hispanic Catholics.
If I had to choose between living in a Spanish speaking America and living in a pagan America I would choose the former.
Echoing your sentiments somewhat, I made a few points in a response to a lamentation by Clyde Wilson before the blog comments were turned off. They went something like this:
The banality and sterility of post-Puritan America is scarcely livable or recognizably human and its sub-summation into Latin America would not be an altogether bad thing, but for a fourfold problem. First, the form of Spanish spoken by most immigrants is a rather unlovely dialect. Second, the Hispanics that come are from the poorest and most civilizationally backwards sectors of their society--not the ones to bring a fruitful cultural renewal. Third, as an extension of the second point, the blending of Hispanic culture into post-Puritan America has been a most unfruitful experiment.
Think Taco Bell (at best), the barrios of El Paso or the Favellas of Sao Paolo. These, not the glorious splendor of Buenos Aires, Rio de Janiero or Mexico City, are our future.
Fourth, it is just downright depressing to cede one's place and past the way this sub-summation asks of the remaining decent Anglos in America.