Belarus: Still No Country For Sold Men
Alexander Lukashenko has won the fourth presidential election in Belarus, taking 79 percent of votes cast in the turnout of over 90 percent, according to official figures. The opposition staged a protest rally in the central square in Minsk after polling stations had closed on Sunday, claiming that the election was stolen. Some protestors tried to storm the Parliament, provoking a fierce response by the police. Hundreds of people were arrested in the ensuing violence.
The ensuing reaction in Western Europe and here was predictable. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton “condemns the brutality carried out after yesterday's presidential elections in Belarus, especially the beating and arrest of several opposition leaders including a host of candidates for the presidency,” the EU said. The vote was marred by a "flawed" vote count, the OSCE said and decried the "heavy-handed" police response to opposition protests. “The German government calls for the immediate release of arrested opposition politicians and media representatives,” said Chancellor Angela Merkel’s spokesman Steffen Seibert. He added that it was “regrettable” that Belarus was rejecting an EU offer to provide billions of euros in aid if the elections were conducted in a fair manner.
But Lukashenko, whose government was called the “last dictatorship in Europe” by the U.S. government, claimed that the election was free and fair and vowed to maintain order. By now he knows what he is against. He has said in the past, “In our country, there will be no pink or orange, or even banana revolution.” More recently he said some people in the West think that Belarus is ready for a color-coded revolution, but they are not getting any; “all these coloured revolutions are pure and simple banditry.”
A Western-financed student group, Zubr, already tried in March 2005 to emulate the color-coded revolutions, but the effort collapsed after fewer than a thousand people joined it. A second attempt was made a year later, in March 2006, soon after the previous presidential election, which Lukashenko also won. Protesters camped out in October Square in Minsk over the next week, echoing the Orange Revolution in Kiev. A feeble attempt was made by Zubr to call it the Jeans Revolution, denim supposedly being a symbol for freedom, but it fizzled out.
This time round Brussels and Washington may huff and puff, but there will be no color-coded revolution in Minsk. The political facts of the case are straightforward:
1. Lukashenko is not a Western-style democrat, but he is not a dictator either. Whether he has 70 or 80 percent support is debatable, but no Western diplomat in Minsk disputes the fact that he’d be a winner even in an election conducted on Swedish or Swiss rules.
2. Lukashenko’s key early move was the closing of the Belarus Soros Foundation in 1997, followed by a ban on other “NGO”-clones. This prevented the replay of Belgrade, Tbilisi and Kiev in Minsk— and turned him into a “dictator” in Washington.
3. Lukashenko’s popularity, and the key to the inability of various color-coded would-be emulators to gain support, is due to the fact that he has resisted foreign attempts to subvert him (or else to buy him) and to open the country to “privatization” and “post-communist transition” with predictable results for millions of common folks.
To understand this last point, it is necessary to list some of the economic fruits of Lukashenko’s 16 years of power:
1. A modest budget deficit of 3 percent of GDP, which should make Belarus a model member of the Euro-Zone and a model for Obama and Bernanke to follow, being less than one-third of the U.S. equivalent.
2. The unemployment rate in Belarus is currently just under 1% (one percent), one-half of what it was in 2005; while the GDP at $12,500 per capita in 2009 is on par with EU members Romania and Bulgaria and almost twice that of then-Orange Ukraine.
3. The economy of Belarus has weathered the global crisis spectacularly well: according to the International Monetary Fund estimates, the country’s GDP will grow by a China-like 7.2 percent this year and 6.2 percent in 2011.
4. Institutional investor confidence: Overall outperformance helped Minsk raise $1 billion in its maiden five-year Eurobond last summer. Belarus plans to borrow $2.2 billion in 2011, with $1 billion through bond issuance—but it wisely has no plans to accept billions of euros in EU “aid.”
5. Private investor confidence: According to a City of London investor after a recent visit to Minsk, “We made an investment. Now, if anything, we are getting more bullish. Belarus has more potential.” No, Lukashenko needs no poisoned gifts from Brussels.
An important factor that does not enter the GDP and employment statistics, but does impact the quality of life, is the low crime rate in Belarus of 1250 per 100,000 inhabitants is below Japan’s 1,500 and one-eighth of 9,622.10 for the United States. This is related to the country’s ethnic and racial coherence, of course. There are no “undocumented workers” in Belarus, no Thirld World immigrants, no “asylum-seekers,” no Albanians, very few Muslims (several thousand Crimean Tatars), and no protected minorities for the Sorosites to obsess over.
Belarus is a stable country, far luckier on all key counts than many of its post-communist peers with impeccable “democratic” credentials. The people are educated, hospitable, and warm-hearted. The gays in the military are not an issue, and there is no NPR. The streets are safe, the churches are full, the prices ridiculously low by western standards. Were it not for the climate (harsh continental), the cuisine (hearty yet bland), and the landscape (flat and rather boring), Belarus would be well worth considering as a place to flee to when the financial and economic decline produce a nation-wide, Hobbesian Katrinaland over here.
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Very encouraging post, Dr Trifkovic!
However, for all its success in the past 16 or so years, can you perhaps shed some reliable light on the fact why Belarus has in recent years been at loggerheads with its large fraternal neighbour - i.e. Russia? What exactly is the problem between the 2 allied countries, and how can it be most hastily resolved?
Thanks for the news update, Dr Trifkovic. I have a lot of admiration for the people of Belarus standing up to Soros, the Feds & Western "democracy" (i.e. tyranny). Thanks for writing these excellent articles on a regular basis.
When I saw that there was 'post-election violence in Belarus' on the news, my immediate thought was 'CIA funded color revolution'. Then I asked myself whether Justin Raimondo or Srdja Trifkovic would be the first to cover it.
It seems that lately these 'revolutions' have had a high failure rate - Iran, Moldova, and now Belarus. Even Ukraine no longer seems very 'orange'. The only color revolution that seems to have shown any long term success is Georgia.
On Lukashenko's relations with Russia, check out The Irish Times of Dec. 21:
... After months of sniping had dragged relations between Minsk and Moscow to a recent low, Lukashenko clinched a deal last week for Russia to deliver up to 21 million tonnes of duty-free oil to Belarus next year, saving the economy at least €3 billion.
Talking about the deal, Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin praised Lukashenko for charting “a clear course towards integration with Russia”.
It is not clear how far this integration will go, but Moscow will certainly want something substantial in return for revenue lost under such a duty-free deal. It could lead to Kremlin-controlled firms taking major stakes in Belarus’s pipeline network or in its few attractive industrial enterprises, as well as sticking more closely to the Moscow line on foreign policy matters...
“I will endure all hardships so that we do not split with Russia,” he said, claiming Belarus had never been Russia’s enemy. “We have managed to get away from this tension,” he added
Another fascinating piece by Dr. Trikovic. Aside from the many other salient facts presented, just Belarus' tossing Soros out is enough to put them on my short list of favorite countries!
We need such insight because our major media in this country are constrained by institutional and ideological biases coupled with laziness and linguistic ineptitude. Thus we are left with cardboard images of countries that can be emplaced in neat categories suitable for imperialistic intervention.
As we approach Christmas in the Western calendar I'll be hoisting some slivovitz in Dr T's honor!
Brilliant title -- "No Country for Sold Men." I like that. Selling one's soul to George Soros is no way to run a nation. Belarus, at least, grasps as much.
Thank you very much for that link, Dr Trifkovic! And I will join Mr Harry Collin in toasting your honour, with a short shot glass of Serbian Shljivovitsa!
"Belarus is a stable country, far luckier on all key counts than many of its post-communist peers with impeccable “democratic” credentials. The people are educated, hospitable, and warm-hearted. The gays in the military are not an issue, and there is no NPR. The streets are safe, the churches are full, the prices ridiculously low by western standards."
Soros is probably wondering, "Where is Holbrooke when we need him?".
@8 robert wrote:
Soros is probably wondering, “Where is Holbrooke when we need him?”
Too funny. Better yet, he’s probably thinking, “Can’t we trump up any charges on this guy such as rape, not wearing a condom, or some form of genocide? No? Curses.”
Few years ago Belarus was often mentioned in western news as the "poorest", often "worst place to live", probably on Earth if not even wider. In weeks preceeding recent elections, it was clearly announced that protests are sceduled due to "irregularities" so the authorities made a skating ring of the central square in Minsk.......dear god, before the fact? (Brings back so many idiotic pictures from memory)
My congratulations to people of Belarus, who quite clearly followed political developments on all related subjects since 90s. I also wish them all the luck and wisdom in the future. Orhodox Slavs do have right to survive after all.
Another excellent article by Mr. Trifkovic.........
No slivovitz or Serbian Shljivovitsa here. I do number Jim Beam and Jack Daniels among my friends, who will have to suffice to toast this good news.
Fascinating news, Dr. Trifkovic. No surprise that the "news" we get about Belarus is incomplete or outright propoganda.
Lukashenko made a visit to Belgrade in April 1999 during the bombing of Serbia to hold talks with the government even as NATO refused to formally suspend military operations to give his plane a secure window during which to land. His foreign minister had rebuked NATO and explained Belarus's refusal to attend 50th anniversary ceremonies: "Aggression and anniversary festivities are incompatible," said Latypov. (Belapan, April 15, 1999)
As I recall, his visit was in the capacity of chairman of the Russian-Belarussian Union and he was coming to hold talks after the Yugoslav Parliament had voted to join the union. I also recall the Russian Duma had ratified the bid to join the union. I wonder what became of that union given that Serbia is the official successor state to that last version of Yugoslavia.
Questions above about Russian-Belorussian relations prompted my recollection that in 1999 Russian president Yeltsin and his entourage were considered ill-equipped to run Russia and some Russian nationalists were hoping for Lukashenko to take the reigns of it all.
Hats off to Lukashenko for keeping his country away from the greedy hands of the EU and USA based NGO's. It just goes to show that these organizations are nothing but bad news for any nation to get involved with. Long live Lukashenko!
We can only hope that George Soros will join Richard Holbrooke in the very near future!
Thanks for this timely update, Dr. Trifkovic; it makes me want to visit White Russia (when one considers the matter, the awkwardness of the adjective 'belarussian' only underscores that 'Belarus' is a mere PC form for us Anglos; we are perfectly entitled to use our traditional name for the place).
A few commenters here mentioned the recently deceased functionary, RH. They might get a kick out of looking up, on Wikipedia or elsewhere, the mystery of how he acquired his surname. Several wags on my favorite discussion forum have taken to referring to him as Richard 'Holbrooke'. Seldom have mere single quotes carried deeper significance.
Belarus is doing well to avoid falling into the Euro-trap that seduced, fattened and ultimately ruined the likes of Ireland.
What is White Russia's birthrate and does it allow abortion?
@11 Mr. Van Sant
I'd be happy to toast too, with my friend Mark Makers, whose bourbon is often sold with his surname first, for some reason.
This good news really made my day (and Christmas no less!).
Now for the downer, are we due for another CIA assisted/formented attempt to jump start the ongoing Democratic Revolution there?
Is it not understood that democracy always trasitions to dictatorship after more than 50% of the citizens are beneficiaries of government largess? The money runs out and the rioting begins. This will happen in the good old US of A in a few years. Our hope is that the dictator will be as benevolent and as enlightened as is Alexander Lukashenko.
Matt, you have to realize that if you are a homogeneous country, your birth rate is highly irrelevant. If my country was 100% Romanian with no immigration, you think I'd care about what our birth rate is? Sure, it's a problem, but as Europeans even if we breed like rabbits now, we won't get out of the mess. The only thing that would save us is some old fashioned ethnic cleansing, but it's up to the future to see if European men still have the stomach for it, or balls for that manner.
Joseph @17 Skoal. Please forgive my delayed response as I was out of town on a rescue mission, which was successfully completed when my wife and I returned home with her uncle in tow at 1135 PM last night, just in time to celebrate the New Year. Cheers to the New Year, too.