A Major War: Not Just Rumors
The crisis in relations between the United States and Russia over Georgia heralds a particularly dangerous period in world affairs: the era of asymmetrical multipolarity. A major war between two or more major powers is more likely in this configuration than in any other model of global balance known to history.
The most stable system is bipolarity based on the doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD), which was prevalent from the 1950s until the end of the Cold War. The awareness of both superpowers that they would inflict severe and unavoidable reciprocal damage on each other or their allies in a nuclear war was coupled with the acceptance that each had a sphere of dominance or vital interest that should not be infringed upon.
With Brest-Litovsk and the Barbarossa in mind, Stalin “intended to turn the countries conquered by Soviet armies into buffer zones to protect Russia” (Kissinger). The Western equivalent, also essentially defensive, was defined by the Truman Doctrine (1947) Proxy wars were fought in the grey zone all over the Third World, most notably in the Middle East, but they were kept localized even when a superpower was directly involved (Vietnam, Afghanistan). This model was the product of unique circumstances without an adequate historical precedent, however, which are unlikely to be repeated in the foreseeable future.
The most stable model of international relations that is both historically recurrent and structurally repeatable in the future is the balance of power system in which no single great power is either physically able or politically willing to seek hegemony. This model was prevalent from the Peace of Westphalia (1648) until Napoleon, from Waterloo until around 1900, and from Versailles until 1933. It demands a relative equilibrium between the key powers (usually five to seven) that hold each other in check and function within a recognized set of rules that has come to be known as “international law.” Wars between great powers do occur (Solferino, Crimea, Sadowa...), but they are limited in scope and intensity because the warring parties tacitly accept the fundamental legitimacy and continued existence of their opponent(s).
If one of the powers becomes markedly stronger than others and if its decision-making elite internalizes an ideology that demands or at least justifies hegemony, the inherently unstable system of asymmetrical multipolarity will develop. In all three known instances—Napoleonic France after 1799, the Kaiserreich from around 1900, and the Third Reich after 1933—the challenge could not be resolved without a major war.
The government of the United States is now acting in a manner structurally reminiscent of those three powers. Having proclaimed itself the leader of an imaginary “international community,” it goes further than any previous would-be hegemon in treating the entire world as the American sphere of interest. As I pointed out two weeks ago, the formal codification came in the National Security Strategy of September 2002, which presented the specter of open-ended political, military, and economic domination of the world by the United States acting unilaterally against “rogue states” and “potentially hostile powers” and in pursuit of an end to “destructive national rivalries.” To that end, the administration pledged “to keep military strength beyond challenge, thereby making the destabilizing arms races of other eras pointless, and limiting rivalries to trade and other pursuits of peace.”
Any attempt by a single power to keep its military strength beyond challenge is inherently destabilizing, and results—sooner or later—in the emergence of an effective counter-coalition. Napoleon finally faced one at the Völkerschlacht at Leipzig in 1813. “There is no balance of power in Europe but me and my twenty-four army corps,” the Kaiser famously boasted in 1901. Within years he was also building a high seas fleet, setting off alarm bells in London. By 1907, Wilhelmine Germany engendered a counter-coalition that prompted even traditional rivals like Britain and Russia to join forces (the latter to be replaced by the United States in 1917). And as for the most recent Griff nach der Weltmacht, by the second week of December 1941 Germany was irrevocably doomed to another defeat.
An early yet certain symptom of destabilizing asymmetry in action is the would-be hegemon's tendency to claim an ever-widening sphere of influence or interference at the expense of his rivals. In the run-up to 1914 this was heralded by the Kruger Telegram (1896) and exemplified by the German bid to build the railway from Berlin to Baghdad (1903) and by the First Moroccan Crisis (1905). Neither Napoleon nor Hitler knew any «natural» limits, but their ambition was essentially confined to Europe. With the United States today the novelty is that this ambition is extended—literally—to the whole world. Not only the Western Hemisphere, not just the «Old Europe,» Japan, or Israel, but also Taiwan, Korea, and such unlikely places as Georgia, Estonia, Kosovo, or Bosnia, are considered vitally important. The globe itself is now effectively claimed as America's sphere of influence, Russia's Caucasian, European and Central Asian back yards most emphatically included.
Four weeks ago the game itself became alarmingly asymmetrical. For America it is still ideological, but for Russia it has become existential. Russia is now acting as a conservative, pre-1914 European power in seeking to protect its "near abroad." America is acting like a global revolutionary power, whose "near abroad" is literally everywhere.
It is therefore futile for Russia to try to “manage” the crisis in a pre-1914 manner and hope for some elusive softening on the other side, because the calculus in Washington is not rational. The counter-strategy of unpredictability, exemplified by Medvedev’s recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, is an eminently rational response, however. It may yet force the remnant of sanity inside the Beltway -- and especially at the Pentagon -- to try and exercise some adult supervision over the bipartisan “foreign policy community” of smokers in the arsenal.
Entries(RSS)
Aside from the ethnic conspiracy theories from the usual suspects, these comboxes have focused on nose-thumbing between pro- and anti-Russian commenters.
I must be naïve, but the point for me is not the merits of Russia vs. Latvia &c., but the fate of the United States in all this. Like Rome in Mesopotamia, the U.S. has bitten off more than it can chew. Cheney is still yammering about Georgia joining NATO, McCain has employed a Georgian lobbyist as his policy adviser, and Obama, perhaps to dispel his effete, inexperienced image, has stepped back into the NATO-expansion line.
Just as Rome overstretched herself invading Mesopotamia, the U.S. will be overstretched if she tries to assert herself too boldly in the Black Sea.
Georgia has an extraordinary culture, stretching back, like the Basques', to Neolithic Europe, but is irrelevant to the safety and prosperity of the United States. Russia is reasserting herself in her neighborhood; so be it.
Dr. Trifkovic is wise to point out the dangers of an asymmetry of power in a multipolar world. One might add, a world where the balance is shifting is even more dangerous. The sooner we adjust our ends to our means, the better off we'll be.
Not. Gonna. Happen.
Christopher Hitchens has an article in 6 points on why "Ossetia isn't Kosovo" on his site dated August 18th. This article badly needs a rebuttal. I wish someone at the Chronicles would take some time to answer it. One casuistry that gets me the most is how Putin is supporting the president of Zimbabwe!. Somebody please write an answer to this jackass.
@Lucius & Mina:
Let me speak politely plainly: I don't want to send my sons and daughters to die for Estonia. Forgive me if I sound insensitive, but charity really does begin at home; and if our "leaders" really do care about these statelets, let them send their own children.
Re. # 50
Lucius,
It was not a Russian source that I cited at # 47. It was the one of the World News Agency.
However, here is the point 3 from the SCO declaration that you had mentioned at # 50:
... 3. The member states of the SCO express their deep concern in connection with the recent tension around the issue of South Ossetia, and call on the relevant parties to resolve existing problems in a peaceful way through dialogue, to make efforts for reconciliation and facilitation of negotiations.
The member states of the SCO welcome the approval on 12 August 2008 in Moscow of the six principles of settling the conflict in South Ossetia, and support the active role of Russia in promoting peace and cooperation in the region. ...
Jack Bailey wrote:
"As long as they[Latvians and Estonians] can be anti Russian while hoping to eventually start a world war with Russia to feed their injured national psyche. What can be sicker than that?"
That's easy: The leaders of our once great nation buying into it or using it as a subterfuge to advance their own treasonous ends. All one has to do is watch either of the major party conventions to see how dangerously ludicrous leadership at the top has become. Monty Python could never do farce better.
@ Boba
In other words, the SCO did not support the invasion.
Great article here by Thierry Wolton in Le Monde:
http://www.lemonde.fr/archives/article/2008/09/03/lourd-heritage-sovietique-par-thierry-wolton_1090988_0.html
Use Babelfish to translate if you don't read French.
Dr. Trifkovic I watched a clip of the BBC documentary Death of Yugoslavia on YouTube and it made out that the Bosnian president was kidnapped by Serb forces in 91/92 is this true?
How many of the Baltic states leaders are members of the CFR and the Trilateral commission?
@42Lucius
That’s because it hasn't been properly Russian since 1917. The same pattern of ethnic percentage in Russia can be found in the former soviet states after WW2.
@52jack bailey
Christopher Hitchens is a former Marxist communist supporter who supports Jewish causes like the war in Iraq. During the 90's he backed the Bosnian Muslims over the Serbs.
Putin doesn't Zimbabwe he didn't support further sanctions because it would have the same effect as it had on Iraq.
Ari Ben-Menashe a former Mossad agent is employed by Mugabe. He is the one that produced the fake video of the head of Mugabe’s opposition of conspiring to kill him.
I agree with him Ossetia is not Kosovo. It does not ship 75% of Afghan heroine into Europe, sex trafficking, major organised crime into Europe, etc.
#46 Roobit,
Czech Republic and Slovakia belong together. These countries were used as excuse by Nazi Germany to project their power deep into central Europe, and a pretext the attack its immediate neighbors Poland, a precedent was needed. Gee almost identical to some precedents being created today.
History repeats itself, same players more less, very few changes, but the end results is identical to current events, at least in the Balkans.
At the beginning of WWI Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia were parts of Austrian Hungarian Empire, Macedonia was part of Serbia. Croatian, Slovenians, and Bosnian Muslims all fought on the Austrian Hungarian side along with Germany. Serbia and Montenegro were the only independent countries on the territory that was once Yugoslavia.
During of WWII, Fascist Italy and Nazi Germany annexed Kosovo on behalf of ethnic Albanians. Independent Nazi puppet state Croatia was created by Nazi Germany. Croatians were the staunchest Nazi’s of any other country in Europe (Baltic countries are not on the same planet when it comes to murdering). Bosnia Muslims, ethnic Albanians were also fighting on the side of the Nazi Germany, they were all part of volunteer brigades.
Beginning of 1980 after the collapse of USSR and after reunification of Germany, the German politicians decided to formulate the destruction of Yugoslavia, thus under Germany guidance (lies and propaganda the US was duped) and via US might, Yugoslavia was destroyed (using IMF, to weaken Yugoslavia’s economy), which led directly to premeditated civil wars of the 1990’s. The same ethnic groups that were once used by Austrian Hungarian Empire against Serbia, and the same ethnic groups that were used against Serbia in WWII were ready once again to do what their master wanted them to do, attack Serbia destroy Yugoslavia.
The world has slept trough the reality and the covert destruction and map redrawing of the Balkans, the bridge from east to West had to be secured, thus Kosovo annexation, for the second time in modern history, it was first done by fascist Italy and Nazi Germany, second time it was US turn to annex Kosovo on behalf of freedom loving terrorists. The US has successfully used terrorists against USSR in Afghanistan, and Serbs in Bosnia, and Serbs in Kosovo. This reality will not sustained much longer, but knowing that Serbs could wait up to five hundred years for justice, this little setback is just that a temporary setback.
Montenegro is to Serbia what Ukraine is to Russia. Yet this matter didn’t stop the US and EU to force a divorce between Serbia and Montenegro. The same scenarios that were used to during WWII by Nazi Germany to pit ethnic groups against USSR are now being used against Russia; history repeats itself, with very few changes in the scenarios.
NATO needs to be mothballed for the overall good of Europe and the rest of the world; EU needs to be reorganized where Germany and France are made members with no major influence. The victims of German aggression in WWI and WWII, those countries need to be major players in EU, keeping potential culprits from repeating their ambitions (Italy, Germany and Turkey). The fascist and Nazi collaborating countries need to be isolated or prevented from being influenced by Germany, Italy. UK and the US do not belong in EU or NATO. UK has caused enough damage in the world that will last thousand years. The US has repeated the mistakes the British Empire made once before. Both UK and the US have not learned anything from history. When Warsaw Pact dissolved NATO should have dissolved, and none of the civil wars in the Balkans or on the territory of former USSR would have taken place, missed opportunity to move forward in a positive way.
I know very well who Hitchens is and one could say who cares what he thinks. But this article is so over the top that someone's got to answer it! There is so many misconceptions packed into this article. American public, Republicans and those who don't know better rely on Hitchens to set them in political correctness. That is why someone qualified should take his time and answer this article. These neocons act the way they do because they do not get called on it most of the time.
Re 42
I clearly do have a good idea of what's going on over there. Moldova is considered the poorest part of Europe. A venue recently called it the most depressing place as well. Not so Russia friendly sources have acknowledged why Pridnestrovie (Trans-Dniester) doesn't seek to be part of Moldova.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Some info. on Georgian-Israeli ties:
http://www.cdi.org/russia/johnson/2008-164.cfm#1
Ditto Jewish involvement vis-a-vis the FSU:
http://www.cdi.org/russia/johnson
It's suggested that Saaki propped the Israeli ties as a means of getting better support among key American politicos.
Let me add (from my last post currently awaiting moderation) that ethnic tensions between Pridnestrovie's Moldovan and Slavic communities are nowhere near as pronounced as the ones found in other disputed former Communist bloc territories. In addition, there's no mass movement among ethnic Moldovans in Pridnestrovie to go against Pridnestrovie in its dispute with Moldova.
62Walter Hallstein
"Czech Republic and Slovakia belong together. These countries were used as excuse by Nazi Germany to project their power deep into central Europe, and a pretext the attack its immediate neighbors Poland, a precedent was needed. Gee almost identical to some precedents being created today.
History repeats itself, same players more less, very few changes, but the end results is identical to current events, at least in the Balkans."
Well, I agree that they belong together but they are now together - inside the EU. What I was saying (and i am not going to write a detailed missive as my recent posts disappeared/were censored/are awaiting moderation (in alcohol consumption I assume) is that these are still fairly balanced countries. They are in a different league than Estonia or Georgia. And yes, I also believe that they should be together, that the Austrian Empire should have never been broken (a view shared by many Czechs) and could have transformed into some sort of (Danubian) Federation. Nonetheless today's Slovakia, either its people or its government, has no desire to sacrifice itself for the glory of Washington, neocons or, let' say, the Zionist cause or some other abstraction. Slovaks do not seek historic revenge. Slovaks and Czechs are two nations everyone can live with and live together. This is certainly not the case with today's ethnostatelets in the Baltics or with (most extreme example) Georgia
@38 james
“St Petersburg was a swamp before Russia turned it into the magnificent city that it is.”
It was Swedish at that time.
Actually it was only formally Swedish for 86 years, between the year 1617 and 1703 when Sweden gained Russian territory up to today's fortress of Schliesselburg (Novgorodian Russian Oreshek, Swedish Nöteborg, German Schlüsselburg).
Well done, Dr Trifkovic! It is terrifying to think that one's own country could have become the Second Reich. I say Second because I hope that we have not gone to the insanity of the Third.
Brilliant article as usual by Dr. Trifkovic. Some of the comments are however quite frankly ridiculous, such as "Estonia is more ideologically Nazi than Nazi Germany ever was." I hope that "Germans didn’t provoke what happened in Danzig Polish communists slaughtered 5000 German civilians to get a response from Germany." was an analogy or a joke.
I also find it odd that because "President of the Republic of Latvia Valdis Zatlers - 6 months’ professional training in orthopedia in Yale University and Syracuse University" he has become an enemy of Russia and disputably an enemy of his own people.
Anybody know of Mr. Hallstein's pedigree?
He is throwing about a lot of accusations that are not supported by pre WWI & WWII documentation.
Further, he now blames Germany, again, for fostering discord in Europe.
Considering that Germany is still, today, an occupied country (mostly USA and its overlords AIPAC and Israel) where any new president and chancellor IMMEDIATELY pays homage to Israel and USA upon taking office, it would be absolutely wrong to assume that Germany today has a foreign policy independent of that of USrael. They try a little now and then in agreement with France, such as 'delaying' Georgia's admission to NATO.
For crying out loud, 8,000 people are dragged through the court system there every year for simply asking public questions about questionable occurrences during WWII.
That is not a sign or action of an independent government.
H.F. Wolff
Decent analysis from STRATFOR ( although the fact that the word "China" is not mentioned once, substracts from it quality).
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6084.html
yar,
Thanks for pointing out the analysis in STRATFOR.
I found it fascinating! One forgets at one's peril that chess is a favourite game of the Russians. The mental discipline required to play it successfully is astounding and this is reflected in the tactics employed by the Russians.
Perhaps not 'check-mate', but an interesting game is afoot.
H.F. Wolff
Well I don't know about everybody else here, but I have chosen to ignore all Western sources of news, and rely on RT -- Russia Today -- broadcast in Northern Virginia on air channel 56. It is probably propaganda, but nevertheless, it's much fairer than CNN, BBC, France 2, Deutsche Welle and the Jew York networks. All of which arrange their stories in the same order.
RT's coverage of the Georgia brawl was remarkably fair, as well as detailed. In essence 3 Orthodox peoples settled a border dispute which had been caused by the pock-marked Djugashvili fellow back in the 1920s. The fight was the righting of an old wrong wherein the Ossetians will be reunited. The only drawback I can see is that our maps will become outdated. Oh yes, and the stupid idiot preppies in Foggy Bottom will whine about Ivan the Bear. Boo hoo! Diddums!
It's high time our hapless foreign policy wonks keep their big noses out of everybody's business. 20 years of provocation and sabre-rattling will not be long ignored.
@66
Walter Hallstein was a Eurocrat who died in 1982. There's a French website that uses hi name.
@69Etienne Gervaise
Psych-op interns were brought in to cover the Kosovo war by CNN so that shows you there independence and fairness.
Its obvious western policy is to cause instability and forment regional wars inside Russia like they did with the Bolsheviks or the model and strategy they used against Milosevic.
NATO will be brought in to restore the peace and Caspian oil pipelines will be built from Dagestan to western oil firms to pay for the reconstruction.
H. F. Wolff,
anytime, man...
Russians are good at chess, but not as good as they were. The rest of the world is catching up.
Having said that, with the opposing players being Bush and Cheney, even lobotomized parakeet can pass for a genius.
Russians better learn not to overplay their hand, though. In 1979 Zbigniew Brzezinski - Carter's chief henchman and self-proclaimed "global chess grand master" - "lured" USSR into Afghanistan through US support for jihadis (he later boasted about it in an interview for Nouvel Observateur). We all know how well that idiocy worked out. America is still paying for it, and there is no end in sight. In fact the situation is deteriorating fast.
It seems to me that Putin gets it. First thing that Russians have said after break-up with NATO a week ago was that they wouldn't impede NATO's transit to Afghanistan through Russian territory. They are right. As somebody smarter than me have said, "Never interfere when your enemy is busy hanging himself".
Germany doesn't have a separate foreign policy agenda? I wonder why KLA captured Serbian soldiers ended up in Germany?
Srdja Trifkovic's analysis is excellent.
Let's not intimidate Estonians and Latvians. It's a mistake to just ignore peoples' collective feelings. The Baltics together with Poland have a historical and geographical background which makes them almost natural enemies to Russia. It would be a mistake to ignore their feelings or to interpret them as if they were arising just from US influence. Though we all have to hope that some day such feelings would disappear from planet earth, for the time being we have to respect them, just like any other national feelings.
But it would be a bigger mistake to misinterpret reality according to such feelings. And reality suggests that today the West has clearly lost its moral advantage of Cold War time. It was that moral advantage which enabled victory in Cold War. America's behaviour around the world today made words like "democracy", "freedom", "peace" etc. sound ridiculous in the lips of Bush & Co., just like communist slang was ridiculous in the lips of Soviet leaders. It's a pity for the West and its values.
Russia would be one of the winners out of this US moral and political collapse but not the only one. Russia does not have the potential to become again a world superpower, but it becomes gradually a major regional power. In this process, the most interesting thing would be to see what happens if the US really installs their antimissile system in Poland...
"Peaceful, innocent" Georgians mowing down Ossetians (video):
http://exiledonline.com/war-nerd-skin-valley-video/
PS. Estonian apologists should pay particular attention. This ain't "russian propaganda".
@73niko
Western governments have been training and sponcering international Islamic militants for decades especially in Bosnia in 92.
Russia was the main financier of the Northern Alliance to fight the Taliban which in turn gathered intel and gave them to the Russians which Russia gave to EU and US like the June/July 2001 plot to hijack an airliner and crash it into a building hosting world leaders during the IMF/World Bank meeting in Italy.
Russia even gave the US specific info of the 9/11 terror attacks a month before.
The day before 9/11 the leader of the Northern Alliance is killed by a suicide bomber in Afghanistan and the US props up Hamid Karzia a former Taliban commander and a consultant for a CIA front oil company who had dealings with the Taliban.
Although not confirmed is that US military planes are shipping Afghan heroine to the KLA to be distributed in Europe.
Srdja Trifkovic have you ever been to the Nickola Tesla museum in Belgrade?
Unrelated to this topic but I did not know Nickola Tesla was a Serbian born in Belgrade I believe.
Saw a video on YouTube from a link on rense.com and if its true what is attributed to him then he is one of the greatest thinkers and inventors of all time.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gt8Y93k0pB0
Anyone have any info on this man.
Russia has a fancy new weapon.
http://english.pravda.ru/science/tech/04-09-2008/106296-electromagnetic_super_weapon-0
james1 asked about Tesla:
Scalar waves are said to be sufficiently understood by Konstantin Meyl that they can be readily reproduced by the Tesla coil devices that you can obtain from him. He also claims to have made progress understanding them theoretically.
See http://www.meyl.eu/go/index.php?dir=10_Home&page=1&sublevel=0 . There are demonstrations on Google video.
As for weaponized uses of scalar waves, I'm afraid I believe that they are long in development by both US/UK and Russia. However, getting verifiable, public data looks impossible, so you can't dismiss the possibility that it's just hokum.
Related (perhaps
) :
Russian material scientist Podkletnov has claimed that he created a gravity beam device, capable of smashing 4 inches of concrete. His lab was in a secure building in Russia, Podkletnov is now in Finland, and is looking for 80 million euros for peaceful application of his discovery. I sent an email to co-author Italian theoretical physicist Modanese, asking him if he'd personally witnessed gravity effects in the Podkletnov/Modanese paper, but got no answer.
NASA tested a Podkletnov type device, but aborted the test at 200 rpm, instead of the targetted 5,000 rpm, and called it a failure. High school physics tells us that centripetal force goes as the square of velocity, so they only ran the thing at .16%. Gee, they were trying real hard to get to the bottom of things - at least publicly - weren't they?
Descriptions of electrogravitic research by US and UK firms were fairly public in the 1950's. Now, there's nothing that you can hang your hat on about what became of those researches. Apparently, these were taken deep black. You can read about the public reports of decades gone by in "Secrets of Antigravity Propulsion - Tesla, UFOs andClassified Aerospace Technology" by LaViolette. LaViolette has said that the US ALREADY has an anti-missile technology that utilizes beam weapons. LaViolette may have some unpopular ideas regarding pulsars, but a paper of his that was suppressed from arxiv.org had no less a physicist than Nobel laureate Hans Bethe speak up for, on his behalf. Professor Panagiotis Pappas a physicist at the Technical Education Institute in Piraeus, Greece has publicly stated that “LaViolette deserves two Nobel prizes for his M-L relation finding alone.” (OK, he was probably exaggerating. One prize per discovery....). LaViolette's educational background is B.S. physics from Carnegie Mellon, Ph.D. systems theory from Portland State University.
IOW, he's a serious scientist, even if he works in fringe areas. See, also, the following, wherein he derives the electron orbital quantization of the hydrogen atom, using results from his subquantum kinetics, and not standard quantum mechanics: http://etheric.com/Downloads/nucleon.html
Finally, I heard Charles R. Smith talk about advanced US fighters that can shoot down other fighters using some kind of phased array device. No missile necessary. I haven't even heard of this from any other quarters.
Good luck getting any hard data on any of this, except, I believe, Meyl's device, which you should be able to generate on your own. Tesla was a genius, but apparently the powers that be are so afraid of negative possibilites arising from his work (not without some justification, I might add), that positive and life-promoting applications are being suppressed, also.
I think....
Ironically, if reports of exotic, over-unity applications are true, these may inevitably become public as a result of efforts to stave off economic collapse that may follow from oil wars that the US loses.
73 Niko:
Germany certainly does not have a foreign affairs policy in serious opposition to the masters in Washington and Israel.
In minor things they can do as they see fit to appease the masses... Call it 'window dressing'. In agreement with France these policies may even appear independent to the casual observer.
Germany is still occupied territory and has NOT signed a peace treaty with anybody.
If you know otherwise I'd be pleased if you were to refer me to your sources.
Always willing to be educated / corrected.
Yar:
When the USA waltzed into Afghanistan I commented to my wife about this stupidity and pointed out the results of British and Russian expeditions into that rock pile.
For the incursion into Irak I said "I wonder how they (coalition of the willing and stupid) will end this, based on the fact that that country is made up of 3 tribes that hate each other's guts. Any idiot can start a war."
I agree with you completely here, when it comes to strategic planning the neocons in Washington are mental midgets compared to Putin.
I also think that Putin has little interest in foreign adventures... He's busy re-building infrastructure and the armed forces... that's what I'd do considering the saber rattling by the west. But it is in his genes to use any opportunity that presents itself to tweak the tiger's tail (NATO / USrael) if that can be done with minimal risk to Russia.
H.F. Wolff
On NIKOLA TESLA - Serb and one of the brightest scientists in the world:
http://www.teslasociety.com/biography.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikola_Tesla
On NIKOLA TESLA - Serb and one of the brightest scientists in the world:
http://www.teslasociety.com/biography.htm
@79metamars
It was speculated at one time America had bombs that could knock out electrical equipment until they were used in one of the wars I think it might be Iraq.
There’s been much speculation of countries developing ethnic genetic weapons specifically Israel.
@80H.F. Wolff
I think people forget how bad Russia was during the 90's Harvard shock therapy economic model imposed on Russia left as many as 3 million people dead, state assists were sold on the cheap to western aligned oligarchs much of it’s educated work force fled Russia during the 90’s and has a sever population problem.
Only now is Russia’s birth rate increasing, economy and infrastructure improving it definitely does not want a war.
Western pundits and press have been promoting this New Cold War scenario for years now the first book called the New Cold War came out in 2000 mere month since Putin came to power.
James wrote:
"NATO will be brought in to restore the peace and Caspian oil pipelines will be built from Dagestan to western oil firms to pay for the reconstruction."
I'm a conservative through and through and have always been a strong believer in the free market. But, under the current circumstances I'm forced to ask myself that if oil is so important that we're prepared to start WW3 to continue its free flow, isn't it too risky to continue to leave this valuable commodity in the hands of private ownership? In other words, albeit nationalized companies seldom work efficiently, wouldn't it still be better to nationalize the oil companies?
Tangentially, if it's conservatives suddenly chanting "No, blood for oil!", not even the neo-cons would be blind enough to see how counterproductive continuing to play their treasonous hand would be.
@71 James1
I remember all too well the CNN coverage of the Serbia bombing. CNN is utterly seamless in its "infotainment."
For example: The FDA just approved some new drug to treat nuttiness... This section of the news is brought to you by Merck. Today in Bosnia .... this section of the news is brought to you by Lockheed Martin makers of the F-?? fighter bomber. And now the stock market report brought to you by Dow Jones, publishers of the Wall Street Journal. Special interests anyone?
RT includes massive amounts of culture in its 4 hour news cycle, something that cheers the hearts of Chronicles readers.
Hopefully the Chechens figured out that when Ivan gets mean, he's no pussy. The theater hostage event pretty much came down to we may lose some of ours, but we'll grease all of yours.
@83MilesGloriosus
Nationalising the major oil company like Gazprom in Russia is not a bad idea.
Gazprom oil profits have been used to build projects in Russia like the Sochi 2014 Olympics.
The US needs to nationalise its Federal Reserve which is not owned by the US government but by international bankers primarily based in London.
The Rothschild family alone through its financing of the British Empire have huge influence in the world by far the richest family in the world.
The problem with the US is that an international oligarchy influences its domestic and foreign policy financing Universities, politicians, buy up the media and create think tanks and research groups to influence government and civilian opinion and run organisations like CFR which nearly all presidents and most senators are members of.
Before Putin prosecuted him Khoderkovsky was the wealthiest man in Russia CEO of Yukos but was only a front man for Jacob Rothschild in London who bought up Russia’s oil reserves on the cheap. He avoided paying billions of dollars worth of taxes through his Menatep Bank based in the Isle of Man a tax haven.
The best example is George Soros a Rothschild international front man schooled at the London School of Economics who ran anti-Serb media and organisations during the Balkans wars and secured deals to buy up mining companies in Kosovo.
He organised and financed the revolutions in Serbia, Ukraine and Georgia and runs NGO’s like Open Society and the major financier of Human Rights Watch, Transparency International and MoveOn.org and probably a dozen other organisations I don’t know about.
The Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) which includes Russia and six of its neighbouring countries - Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan - backed Russia's actions in South Ossetia and condemned Georgia's aggression in a joint statement issued on Thursday.
http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/29953
For over a year now, I have said the following:
1) If a major economic meltdown were to occur within two months of the 2008 election, that might be sufficient grounds for the Bush administration to declare martial law and cancel the election.
2) If another terrorist attack (9/11/01 or worse) were to occur within two months of the 2008 election, that might be sufficient grounds for the Bush administration to declare martial law and cancel the election.
3) If both 1 and 2 were to occur within two months of the election, all my money is on the table betting that the Bush administration will declare martial law and cancel the election.
In view of recent developments, I add the following:
4) If the US becomes involved in another major shooting war (Iraq or greater) within two months of the 2008 election, that might be sufficient grounds for the Bush administration to declare martial law and cancel the election.
5) If any combination of 1, 2 and 4 were to occur within two months of the election, all my money, etc.
There few scenarios that will most likely play out after the U.S. elections. One such scenario will be that Russia, China, India, Brazil, and few other smaller nations may form a counter to NATO military force, which is no longer a defensive organization but in fact an offensive and which is being used for enforcing U.S. and EU political agenda around the world. But the most disturbing is that U.S. and its immediate so-called allies (or satellite countries) are bent on surrounding Russia with military basis (there are 700 plus U.S. military basis around the world today). What does a peace loving democracy need so many military bases around the world, and coincidently or not surrounding Russia?
War on terror, after 9/11 was a U.S. creation to be used as an excuse to project its military force without causing concern to other super powers (even tough the U.S. considers itself the only super power) such as Russia, China, India and Brazil. The U.S. has said all along after the collapse of the USSR that it is the sole super power left after the end of the Cold War. Intoxicated by its new role in the world the U.S. has pursued imperialistic policy in order to secure its new role, and all rivals would be attack (economically or via proxy army, terrorists, freedom fighters) and their roles and power diminished. After all it has been very clear, and no secret that the U.S. trained and armed many terrorist groups around the globe and has used them against peace loving nations to strip them of sovereignty. It all started 1980 in Afghanistan (el Quida, Taliban), moved to the Balkans (KLA), then Chechnya, and now operates pretty much throughout the world, destabilizing nations and creating excuses for U.S. intervention and justification for the so-called missile shield. It has adopted a self destructive scenario which will lead to its own demise of its own doing. No Empire from the past or a nation on earth today can sustain such military ambitions. Knowing that there was no military power from the past or present capable of controlling the whole world the U.S. political leaders should have taken a different course after the collapse of the USSR, again a missed opportunity.
@ H.F. Wolff
How does a German national today explain this bit of travesty and hypocritical point of view, of current German political elite knowing historically that Germany was involved for the second time in less then one hundred years in annexing Kosovo away from Serbia on behalf of ethnic Albanians, and against International Laws and Treaties that guarantee sovereignty (at least for some countries)? How does a German national explain or justify that Nazi Germany was directly responsible for the creation of the Nazi puppet state of Croatia in 1939 and then again by a German Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher a former Nazi in 1991/92 after the reunification of Germany? Now we have yet anther German politician that dares to mention International Law, it is brazen and unbelievable, and I guess anything is possible…in a German mind a Nazi German could be more Jewish then the Jew, if such scenario is required for furthering Germanys interests, and let’s not forget the motto “…people will believe a big lie sooner than a little one…”, one more great contribution to the world from Nazi Germany.
[…]
Earlier, Steinmeier said his country would continue to support Serbia on its path toward the EU.
"Germany will formulate its stance on this over the next few weeks, but we have recognized an independent Kosovo, and we would not have done that had we believed that decision ran counter to international law," Steinmeier told journalists.
The German minister said that "the moment had come for Serbia to look forward to the future, not only backwards" and to reward the pro-European powers in Serbia for the “courage”, as he put it, that they had displayed in the election campaign and during talks on forming a new government.
[…]
http://www.b92.net/eng/news/politics-article.php?yyyy=2008&mm=09&dd=05&nav_id=53244
@Mark Higdon (86):
I've been hearing these claims that martial law was coming for 12 years now. First, Clinton was going to do it in 1996, until the Republicans put up Dole and reassured his election. Then he was going to do it in 2000 so he wouldn't have to leave office. Then Bush was going to do it in 2004 to avoid a repeat of 2000.
I think the possibility of it happening in 2008 is just about equal to the reality of it happening in 1996, 2000, and 2004. There's simply no need. Whichever party wins, the same establishment remains in power.
"I’ve been hearing these claims that martial law was coming for 12 years now."
Perhaps so, Scott, but not from me until now. And as you say, it's not likely to happen. After all, my forecast is contingent upon a most unlikely "perfect storm."
Mr. Hallstein,
I agree with your thinking as described in your post #87, the salient point of which, for this debate, is:
"Intoxicated by its new role in the world the U.S. has pursued imperialistic policy in order to secure its new role, and all rivals would be attack (economically or via proxy army, terrorists, freedom fighters) and their roles and power diminished."
To which I might add, again, that Germany is still an occupied country whose foreign policy is dictated by Washington / Usrael.
What you claim in #88 may very well be true (I don't know and your writing seems rather disjointed to me) but the driving force behind it is as stated earlier. Nothing you have written indicates otherwise. BTW what was the political status of Kosovo and Serbia prior to WWI?
Germany at the present time is a judicial and political cess pool, with the ruling class working against the best interests of the nation, aided and abetted (coerced, black mailed and threatened?) by the USA politicos and Usrael.
8000 people are prosecuted every year in Germany for asking embarrassing (for Israel) questions. I understand that 15,000 are in prison for this "offense". The people responsible for this travesty of justice and human rights (where is Amnesty International when you need them???) are the ones you are blaming for the new German foreign policy adventures. I don't have a problem with your assertion on this but again, the driving force is external to Germany.
You have a penchant of quoting out-of-context ie. "The big Lie." I have perused Mein Kampf and there is a lot more to this than what is quoted by people with hidden agendas. In essence Hitler was stating that "The Big Lie" was the method used by "the chosen few" to propagate their agenda. They do.
H.F. Wolff
Most nations that have recognized Kosovo as an independent country are or had Nazi pasts or had a Fascist past or were collaborating countries of both respectfully, these facts are irrefutable. (See http://www.freenations.freeuk.com/gc.64.html) What does this mean for the rest of the world? It means that someone wants to undo the result of WWII and change the future of the political landscape of not only Europe but the world, imposing its will on the world; it also means that Europe and former allies of two great wars, meanly U.S., UK have accepted or prefer the Nazi plans for Europe and are or have been involved in execution of Nazi plan for Europe in the last 28 years, all one has to do is look at the map of Europe today and the map of Europe envisioned by Nazis to see how close the results on the ground today are to that of the Nazi plans from the past, it is frightening and baffling that two allies U.S. and UK would chose Nazi over the alternative, a form of democracy that most of the world has since accepted to a varying degree. Each state has its own idea of what democracy means to them, and how to develop it further and integrated into the world. But now it is very clear why some politicians in the U.S. and UK have discussed and are discussing the idea that perhaps U.S. and UK fought on the wrong side in WWII, and have discussed the alternative results, that would explain the embracing of Nazism and Imperialism repackaged as freedom loving democracy bent on defending human rights and subjective self determination for its immediate gang of countries or its members.
We are hading to a confrontation between East and West, once again, instigated by new and resurgent Germany especially after the reunification in 1980 and unfortunately I believe this time U.S. and UK will be on the losing side of history for accepting German initiated policies for Europe and the World, while Russia, China, India, and Brazil, and others will be on the wining side of this new confrontation, that I am sure off. I believe this time Germany will be isolated properly so there will be no forth chance for resurrection of the Nazi past in any form what so ever, there will be no more Vatican setup rat lines to save the Nazi leadership.
I am not the only person that believes that re-Nazification has taken place in Europe since 1945 slowly at first and it accelerated during 1980’s and into the 1990’s. (See http://www.freenations.freeuk.com/news-2008-07-26.html)
I take back what I said earlier about Saakashvili starting the war after Russia's provocation. In fact, Russia started the war.
http://www.michaeltotten.com/archives/2008/08/the-truth-about-1.php
Mr. Trifkovic,
What is your interpretation on the recent events in which Tomislav Nikolic resigned as the head of the Radicals, albanian government in Pristina announced that it would not use force trying to keep the Serbian parts of Kocobo from separating? Has every political party in Serbia “thrown in the towel” and is willing to let Kocobo go, regardless of their rhetoric, since it appears that the deal has been struck in partitioning the Kocobo and Metohia?
BS!
Why did Russia first go to the UN asking for a ceasefire and witrhdrawal of the attacking Georgian forces before counterattacking? Why did the American and British governments refuse that request?
Your source is misreading a legitimate Russian military contingency plan, given Georgian government behavior leading up to Aug. 7.
@91H.F. Wolff
You should be commenting more Canada which has the Human Rights Commission and the majority of it's media is owned by Israel Asper.
Some books in Canada are banned there and anyone who distributes them are burned and fined by the Canadian government for the expense of burning there books.
Usually white nationalist publications or books critical of Jews although they didn't mind selling and promoting the book Hitlers Willing Executioners where it's thesis is that Germans have a Jew hating genetic composition to there character.
Reasons why South Ossetia is definetlynot Kosovo . Thank god.
http://www.slobodan-milosevic.org/hague/news.htm
95 James1,
I did, as you suggest, a year or two ago on a Canadian web site http://www.vivelecanada.ca/.
It degenerated into name-calling (which I do not partake in) hence my admonition "Name calling is the final refuge of the out-argued scoundrel".
In another blog in another post I opined that all western governments are bought-and-paid for, bribed, brow-beaten, threatened with financial or physical harm to family or friends, and Canada is no different regardless of the government of the day. As evidence I simply point out that as soon as a western politician is elected, be it president, prime minister, chancellor, senator, etc. they immediately kowtow and pay homage to AIPAC in the USA or their reps in Isreal, Germany, France, Canada, etc. UNFAILINGLY.
Fortunately in Canada one Ezra Levant lawyer, Macleans Magazine, and Mark Steyn author & columnist, have been hauled before the Canadian and/or provincial Human Rights Commissions (yes you can be judged by multiple commissions for the same "offense"!!!) and raked over the coals as it were. The complaints were lodged by an Islamist's group, in one instance by law students of Osgoode law school in Toronto, Ontario, no less.
Ezra Levant has a website where he takes these "Human Rights Commissions" rightfully to task and sheds light into the incestuous and UNLAWFUL activities thereof but, for a lawyer he plays a little fast and loose with his logic. I find it poetic justice that Jews and Jewish groups fight each other over complaints filed by Islamists, enabled by laws that were passed because of those same Jewish groups. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of people. It sounds convoluted, I know.
Canadian politicians are becoming aware of this judging by the letters received by constituents from their federal representatives. Will things change/improve? I doubt it based on my knowledge of how political parties function.
H.F. Wolff
Further to my #98 post:
Canadians by-and-large are not free speechers of conviction, even though this is guaranteed by the constitution of 1982 and the Canadian Bill of Rights from the 1960's I think. Every time I see/hear a politico sound off on how free Canada is I feel like throwing up. My friends don't want to hear about it...
Usually free speech advocates heavily qualify their quest by repeating the old saw that you can't yell "fire" in a filled theatre, and that "racists" should not be allowed to spew...
To which my reply is "yes you can if there is a real fire", and that "lies are best fought by telling the truth, not by jailing the truth tellers".
The true North is not so Free.
H.F. Wolff