Government Falls in Belgrade
Far from indicating Serbia's readiness to cower into the vivisection kennel, Tadic's victory on February 3 was the last chance for the U.S. and the EU to stop the Kosovo trainwreck. Both Washington and Brussels decided to play va banque instead. Serbia's resulting anger against the West will translate into the well-deserved demise for the DS and other "pro-Western democrats" at the parliamentary election on May 11.
The collapse of Serbia's government on Saturday was unsurprising and necessary. Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica finally stated what we've known for months: that his coalition government "has no united policy any more on an important issue related to the future of the country, on Kosovo as a part of Serbia." The immediate cause of the split was the refusal of two pro-Western parties in the coalition to support Kostunica's position that Serbia would only seek to be integrated into the EU if it can be so in its entirety, including Kosovo.
The underlying causes of the rift are complex. Their explanation requires semantic clarity that is absent among Western analysts of Balkan affairs and their Serbian colleagues alike. Thirteen years of Slobodan Milosevic's rule in Serbia have left many ugly marks on the political and cultural scene of the country. One of them, of a secondary order yet illustrative of the country's mood, is the reluctance of participants in Serbia's public discourse to use certain eminently useful words, such as "conspiracy," "enemy," and "treason."
Those words have a clear meaning and semantic utility, but they are suspect in today's Serbia (no less than the word Volksgemeinschaft is suspect in Germany) because they have become associated with the spirit of Milosevic's era. Having been over-used and abused by his domestic propaganda outlets to malign his foreign foes and domestic political rivals alike, they are considered unclean. The legal, rhetorical, and moral weight of those three words was devalued by Milosevic and his inept media bosses no less than the country's currency was devalued by his Weimar-style hyperinflation.
In reality there had been many full-bloodied conspirators, enemies, and traitors among the Serbs' foes throughout the 1990s. In 1993, for instance, Bill Clinton actively conspired with the mullahs in Tehran to smuggle arms to Bosnia's Muslim mujaheddin, in blatant violation of the very UN resolution which the United States had proposed a year earlier. Albright's brutal ruse at Rambouillet in February 1999, executed with all the subtlety of Reinhardt Heydrich or Zia ul Haq, was a conspiracy against peace par excellence. Its perpetrators were Serbia's enemies in the technical, rather than ideological, sense of that term.
A semantically precise description of political events is the prerequisite for their proper understanding and analysis. We need those three words to explain accurately and adequately what has been going on in connection with Kosovo over the past few months.
THE CONSPIRACY
In the final quarter of 2007 we've witnessed a coldly premeditated conspiracy by the United States administration to prevent any possibility of compromise in Kosovo. Earlier statements by various U.S. officials, from Mr. Bush and Ms. Rice down, that Kosovo's independence was "inevitable" and that it would be achieved "one way or another" (June-July 2007) were a classic case of policy makers actively torpedoing a diplomatic outcome they dislike - and then claiming that the failure of "diplomacy" had been preordained, and therefore an imposed solution was necessary.
This same trick was played by then-U.S. Ambassador in Belgrade, Warren Zimmermann, when he actively sabotaged the Bosnian peace accord brokered by the Portuguese Presidency on behalf of the EU in early 1992. Zimmermann flew post-haste to Sarajevo to tell Alija Izetbegovic that the U.S. would support him if he were to renege on this agreement. The rest is history: Izetbegovic followed American advice, thereby igniting the Bosnian civil war. Zimmermann, his masters at Foggy Bottom, and the White House all share the responsibility for the bloody results.
The present American conspiracy over Kosovo went far beyond engineering the failure of diplomatic efforts. It was focused on getting the EU to follow the Diktat from the Potomac. The doubters were to be cajoled, threatened, maligned as Russian stooges, or otherwise press-ganged into submission. As Slovenian analyst Tomaz Mastnak noted in the latest issue of Foreign Policy in Focus, this behind-the-scenes collusion revealed two violations with regard to Kosovo:
The United States, with Slovenian assistance, sought to circumvent the European political process - not to speak of the UN. And Kosovo itself, by unilaterally declaring independence, violated international law. These two violations - of a political process and of the rule of law - will come back to haunt Europe and the United States in the coming months and years.
Slovenia plays a disproportionately important role in this story, Mastnak explains, because it assumed the European Union presidency on January 1, 2008. A week before, on Christmas Eve 2007, a top official of the Slovenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, its Political Director Mitja Drobnic, had a meeting in Washington with Daniel Fried, assistant secretary of state for European /affairs, his deputy Rosemary DiCarlo, and Judy Ansley, NSA senior director for European affairs. An internal Slovenian report of this meeting was leaked to the Slovenian daily Dnevnik and the Belgrade daily Politika and published on January 25. Their authenticity was beyond doubt, causing the immediate resignation of Mr. Drobnic.
According to Drobnic's minutes, the Americans presented a list of demands, including "a mention of Iraq and rogue states, such as Iran, Burma, and Syria" in the US-EU declaration at the forthcoming summit in Ljubljana. Regarding Kosovo, the conversation was a careful orchestration of the timetable for independence. Drobnic asked for help with obtaining the UN Secretary General's statement in support of sending the European Security and Defense Policy mission to Kosovo, "since some EU member states have difficulties with making the decision to send the ESDP without the UN agreement." Fried responded that "the UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon is under the pressure of the Russian Federation and thus in a difficult position," but the U.S. had assurances that the UN was not going to put restrictions on the sending the mission. Washington, he explained, "will help the UN Secretary General in the case of difficulties with the Russian Federation, while [Slovenia] has to achieve within the EU the sending of the ESDP in the shortest time."
As Mastnak points out, the decision to send the ESDP mission to Kosovo was of key importance for the United States, since it was effectively replacing the UN mandate over the province with the EU mandate. In pushing that decision through, Fried was clear: "one can ignore the critical positions and statements of the Russian Federation and Serbia." His deputy Rosemary DiCarlo noted that it would make sense if "the session of the Kosovo Parliament, in which they pass the declaration of independence, were to be on Sunday, since this way the Russian Federation would not have the time to call for the UN Security Council. In the meantime, the first recognitions would already have happened."
Fried further told the Slovenes that "the US is drafting the constitution with the Kosovars" and that the situation on the ground was "promising." Fried added, "The US hoped that the Kosovars would not lose confidence in themselves, because that would mean that the US will lose its influence."
Both by the formal and substantive criteria, the U.S. Kosovo policy in general and Daniel Fried's behavior in particular is a classic case of CONSPIRACY: the pursuit of illegal and illegitimate objectives through secret association with other plotters. Mr. Fried's manner of a mastermind telling his Euro-underlings how to stage a heist offers far more incontrovertible evidence of conspiratorial culpability than, say, the Hague "Tribunal's" accusation against Milosevic or Seselj that they had forged a conspiracy for the creation of a "Greater Serbia."
The US-EU plot is not aimed only at Serbia, Russia, and those EU members that oppose Kosovo's independence. Let us recall that Swedish foreign minister and former premier Carl Bildt declared last December that the EU should seek to maintain a "mere appearance" of respect for international legality. In reality the trans-Atlantic Kosovo conspiracy is directed against the very foundations of the global legal and political order, and therefore against peace as such. This is a capital crime par excellence under the Nuremberg Rules.
THE TRAITORS' SWAN SONG
There is no more overtly inimical act in international relations than taking territory away from one nation for the benefit of another. Throughout history it has been a perfectly legitimate casus belli. Accordingly, the proponents of Kosovo's independence are stricto sensu Serbia's enemies, just as the proponents of the Munich Diktat in September 1938 were the enemies of the Czechs. Accordingly, Under-Secretary of State Nicholas Burns - Daniel Fried's boss - "explained" why UNSC Resolution 1244 did NOT prevent Kosovo's secession in terms worthy of a Ribbentrop or Molotov:
The language referring to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Former Republic of Yugoslavia is mentioned in the resolution's preamble, not in any of its legally operative language. In other words, while UNSCR 1244 aimed for a negotiated agreement, it did not prejudge the ultimate outcome and did not legally require a negotiated agreement.
By this standard of "legality" this world is a Hobbesian jungle in which the life of small nations that do not obey the will of Messrs Burns, Fried, and their ilk, is nasty, brutish, and short. By allowing its Kosovo policy to be shaped by these dysfunctional bureaucrats and recognizing the monster of its own creation, the United States government - the Conspirator-in-Chief - has declared itself as an enemy of Serbia in the purely value-neutral sense, just as the proponents of a "free" Chechnya are objectively Russia's enemies. This is the context needed to understand the motives of demonstrators who damaged an auxilliary wing of the U.S. Embassy in Belgrade just over two weeks ago.
Within Serbia there are prominent "pro-Western" political leaders and top-level state officials belonging to the "reformist" and "pro-European" parties who have coordinated their domestic political strategies with the likes of Messrs. Burns and Fried, and their Euro-ilk. By any normal, i.e. non-ideological yardstick they are guilty of treason: of criminal disloyalty manifest in actions that undermine or jeopardize the interests of their nation and state. There is ample prima facie evidence of such culpability among Tadic's coterie. The recent presidential elections, for example, were called on December 12, 2008, by the Democratic Party without prior agreement among coalition partners - but in agreement with, and the approval of, Washington and Brussels.
Contrary to Mr. Burns' stated expectation of "a period of stability" after Kosovo's declaration of independence, the U.S. policy has destabilized the Balkans and divided the world. The good news is that the polarization will finally debunk the myth of the "International Community." If about a half of all sovereign states, accounting for more than two-thirds of the world's population, are not on board with the United States on this issue - intense pressure, threats and promises notwithstanding - the result will be a long-overdue and welcome loss of face and credibility by the global-hegemonist "foreign policy community" inside the Beltway.
Mr. Burns' confident expectation that, after some passing anger, Serbia would "take its place in the European Union in the future and in a better relationship with NATO and as a friend of the U.S." is as absurd as his "legal opinion" on UNSC Resolution 1244. The flames in the U.S. embassy in Belgrade were easy to put out, but the country's anger is deep and the people's resentment of America abiding.
President Boris Tadic's narrow victory (51 percent) in the second round of the presidential election on February 3 was entirely due to his claim that, as a pro-Western reformist, he could obtain less brutal treatment for Serbia from Brussels and Washington than his "nationalist" opponent. But Mr. Burns et al misinterpreted his victory as a sign that the Serbs were throwing in the towel. (Oh yes, had Tomislav Nikolic of the Serbian Radical Party won, they would have said that their scenario should be applied because Serbia proved herself to be irredeemably nationalist . . . )
Far from indicating Serbia's readiness to sling into the vivisection kennel, however, Tadic's victory was the last chance for the U.S. and the EU to stop the train wreck. The anger against the West will translate into the well-deserved electoral demise for Tadic's Democratic Party at the parliamentary election on May 11.Kosovo will linger on for a few years, as an expensive albatross costing American and European taxpayers a few billion a year. It will continue developing, not as a functional economy but as a black hole of criminality and terrorism. The ever-rising and constantly unfulfilled expectations of its unemployable multitudes will eventually turn - Frankenstein's monster-like - against the entity's creator.
107 Responses »
Trackbacks
- Government Falls in Belgrade : Novakeo.com
- Republican Riot » If the Subject is Serbs, Obama Offers no Change we can Believe In
- News | Serbian Unity Congress » If the Subject is Serbs, Obama Offers no Change we can Believe In, Republican Riot blog/Julia Gorin
- News | Serbian Unity Congress » Not So Fast - Serbia Conquered? Hardly., antiwar.com/Nebojsa Malic
- Paleoconservatives owe their loyalties to a foreign power « Entitled to an Opinion
- News | Serbian Unity Congress » Blood: Serbs, UN clash in Kosovo, antiwar.com (Nebojsa Malic)
- Chronicles: A Magazine of American Culture | Your Home for Traditional Conservatism » The E.U.’s Double Game in the Balkans
- News | Serbian Unity Congress » The E.U.’s Double Game in the Balkans, The Chronicles Magazine (Srdja Trifkovic)
Entries(RSS)
@Edward (47):
Indeed--and that's precisely what Pope Benedict said in his welcoming address to the new Serbian ambassador to the Holy See, just a day after the U.S. recognition of Kosovo.
But don't expect that to convince Mr. Warning. Although he denies being a sedevacantist, he didn't deny that he believes that the Holy Father is a heretic, and he clearly believes that he is more Catholic than the pope.
Mr. Warning,
The Pope recently thanked the Serbian ambassador for Belgrade's work in rejuvenating the ecumencial dialogues between Catholic and Orthodox bishops which took place in Belgrade in 2006 and elsewhere thereafter. The Pope has been an enthusiastic proponent of closer relations with the Orthodox and has worked closely with the Orthodox ecumenical patriarch in Constantinople in this regard - even attending a liturgy at St. George's in Constantinople. Given Mr. Dzugashvili's post, this fact about the Pope, and common sense in supporting Christians over Islamic drug running murderers, what is your point??? I suppose it is your fetish with 1914 and blaming her for Austria's demise - unfortunate demise, I would add - and not thinking clearly about what a sane future looks like. Even the most patriotic political party in Austria today - the Freedom Party - voiciferously supports the Serbian view and yet you label them heretics and traitors! You are unbelievable!
@ Mr.Scott P. Richert you wrote: "But don’t expect that to convince Mr. Warning. Although he denies being a sedevacantist, he didn’t deny that he believes that the Holy Father is a heretic, and he clearly believes that he is more Catholic than the pope."
Honestly. I never said The Holy Father Benedict XVI was a heretic.
Please use my own words to put me in my place not what you think I said. I am a layman with no authority to declare the Holy Father Benedict XVI a heretic. Is that clear?
@ Mr.Scott P. Richert you are the one who brought the Holy Father into this, not me, here read your own words: "So I take it, Mr. Warning, that you’re more Catholic than the Pope, who, even more fully than Heinz-Christian Strache, has willfully participated in an Orthodox Divine Liturgy?"
My response to the above is: "I certainly do not have to enter into a mosque in order to defend independent Kosovo, now do I? Contrasting my defense of independent Kosovo with a another Roman Catholic Heinz-Christian Strache who takes it upon himself to defend the Serb position on Kosovo by willfully participating in the Holy Liturgy of the Serbian Orthodox Church at the Ascension of the Most Holy Mother of God in Vienna on March 2, 2008. Since most of you pro-Serbs claim that Kosovo is Muslim I can say that I certainly do not have to enter into a mosque in order to defend independent Kosovo, now do I?
@ Mr.Scott P. Richert you wrote “in response to your cryptic remarks that attacked Pope Benedict for entering a mosque”
Again the following must confuse the lot of you pro-Serbs:
“All things therefore whatsoever they shall say to you, observe and do: but according to their works do ye not; for they say, and do not. For they bind heavy and insupportable burdens, and lay them on men’s shoulders; but with a finger of their own they will not move them. And all their works they do for to be seen of men. For they make their phylacteries broad, and enlarge their fringes.”
Simple. I as a Faithful Roman Catholic must keep the integrity of the Faith. I am not allow to mix error with the True Faith, not in word or in deed. If I see the bishops or priests or even the Holy Father doing otherwise and causing scandal I certainly do not have to follow their example. What is so hard to understand?
Mr. Warning,
With all due respect, sir, it sounds like you are more of Protestant than a Catholic. There are many a fine man in the Protestant ranks also. Be honest with yourself then.
@Michael Warning (56):
Nothing, now that you've finally dispensed with the cryptic responses and told us where you really stand. I'll keep that in mind when I read your remarks in the future, and I'm sure others will also.
@ Michael Warning, #56
As far as I can tell, you believe that you can, at the same time:
a) Treat the teaching of the Roman Catholic Church as a salad bar, where you can take what you like and leave or ignore the rest, and
b) Consider yourself to be a faithful Roman Catholic.
I'll leave it to you to conclude which historical figure this closely resembles.
Michael Warning says:
"So basically you desire a World War III. All because Serbia wants more land."
Serbia wants only the land that belongs to Serbia, and Kosovo is the cradle of the Serbian nation. The Serbs are a very strange lot. They shouldn't be confused with Slovenes, or Croats, or Albanians, who are always accepting foreigners as their masters. When angered by injustice and humiliation, they often go for broke, regardless of consequences. If you study their history in WWI , WWII or the recent Yugoslav Civil War, you will learn they will never meekly be tutored by some Kultur-Traegers from the degenerate "Europe".
World War III ? I can see the EU making exactly the same mistake as the Austro-Hungarian Empire, pressing arogantly and recklessly on Serbia. Yes, the Serbs are quite capable of starting it -- and I think they will do so at the first opportunity. Europe may regret dearly her shortsightedness in the near future.
If the Serbs were more noble neighbors than their drug trafficking, slave trading, wife beating, independent neighbors, then don't you gentlemen think that this would be reflected in the behavior of the Serbs.
The Serbs now have stormed the UN court in northern Kosovo on March 14, 2008, and most likely at the instigation of the Serbian government.
How many more times will the world have to read about the Serbian rage?
Oh, dear -- storming the "UN court"? Absolutely shocking. Definitely not done. Barbarian fiends! Enough of their rage already...
@ Michael Warning #61
If you were more concerned with salvation than with politics, others could actually believe that you were a Catholic. Alas, Catholicism for you seems to be a fig leaf to justify your political agenda.
Speaking of your political agenda, it is primarily "avenge the demise of the Austria-Hungary" and "bash Russians and Serbs". Somehow you leave Greeks, Bulgarians and Romanians out of it--is it because their countries are NATO members?
And why such unhealthy obsession with Russians and Serbs? Did some of their kids beat you up and steal your toys when you were a kid?
Re: # 61 Michael Warning - Hey Warning what Serbian rage and what court?
Read this....
...The [Serbian] demonstration began Feb. 21, just a few days after the independence declaration, and the demonstrators represent the 200 Serbian employess of the court **who were fired in 1999 **when Brussels, through NATO and the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), took over the province that year after NATO's 78 day air campaign against Serbia. One of the demonstration leaders is Milanka Prstojevic who stated, "We didn't bring weapons, we just brought the law and that's why they should leave us be, put down their weapons, open the gates and let us into the building to revive law and order." [B92]
@ 64 Mr. Boba:
"The [Serbian] demonstration began Feb. 21," Thanks Boba, I did not know these die hard peaceful protesters were so dedicated as to spend some 20 days of peaceful protests outside the UN courthouse. I see 20 days...... Question, don't these peaceful protesters have jobs? I always wondered about peaceful protesters in any country, Some people have so much free time that they can fritter away without interrupting home life, family time, work & dare I say religious obligations? The conclusion is that most modern day protesters must be rich. Either that or on the government dole. And that might explain that the storming of the UN courthouse was at the behest of the Serbian government.
@Michael Warning (65):
Much like people who have nothing better to do than to comment obsessively on websites.
Getting back to the matter at hand instead of debating our local Ustasha fanatic, Nebosja Malic linked back to this article about the upcoming Serbian election in his recent Antiwar.com column. He's concerned that given the time from now until the May 11 election is long enough for the pro-Empire media in Serbia, which would consist of the B92 radio station plus other George Soros/NGO backed media outlets to convince the Serbian public to support Tadic and his gang of traitors. After all, did not Tadic use such media for the scare tactics that led to his narrow victory? How will Serbia's patriots counteract the propaganda that certainly flows against them from outlets of the empire?
Ironic isn't that those who complained about Milosevic's media monopoly to the point where it was bombed by NATO jets now have the monoply themselves?
Mr Scott P. Richert you are so right. And I don't even own a computer.... Well, I admire your defense of The Holy Father, and I take it that you would follow the Holy Father in all of his opinions. To help remind you of a little history on the anniversay of the death of Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic, and the telegram sent by The Holy Father John Paul to the Serbian people in 2003:
"His Holiness Pope John Paul II has learned with consternation and sadness of the tragic assassination of Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic and he asks you kindly to convey his heartfelt condolences to the president and the members of government, together with his forceful condemnation of this barbarous act of violence. At this time of national mourning His Holiness expresses his solidarity with the people of Serbia and Montenegro in their resolute efforts to work for the renewal of society and the building of a democratic order marked by justice, cooperation in the pursuit of the common good and respect for the rights of all. Commending the late Prime Minister to God's mercy, the Holy Father invokes upon the nation and its people the divine gifts of wisdom, strength and peace."
Cardinal Angelo Sodano
Secretary of State
Why dont we all just ignore the insufferable Mr Warning?
I second that, Holy Week upon us and all.
God Bless.
Sean Scallon, has a point when he suspects that Soros raised 'reformists', may pull it again on May 11, but this time there is a new factor in play.
First, having realized Tadic's treachery, Kostunica might not be willing to repeat his mistake of staying neutral between him and Nikolic. One mustn't forget either, that Tadic has won his razor thin victory, thanks to the Minorities in Serbia (Muslims, Albanians, Hungarians and Croats) which came out in droves to vote unconditionally for their 'Europe' and thus twart Serbian aspirations for Kosovo. These groups, however, have produced their maximum electoral output and it is doubtfull they can continue to influence the electoral outcome. Of this, Serbs are already conscious they have a 'fifth column' in their ranks and will this time, go with this thought in mind.
Second. Serbs are not inclined to respect a constitutional order which doesn't permit them to safegard their self-estime ('obraz').
In 1941, they staged a coup d'etat when their treacherous government signed a pact with Hitler permiting him to transport his troops through Yugoslavia, to attack Greece.
With Serbian People, Justice and dignity have always had priority over Peace - a concept unpalatable for their western 'friends'.
The Democrats will win the upcoming election but not for the reasons that Mr. Malic is afraid of. They will win because the election will have nothing to do with Kosovo, Instead, the election will be about the economy and property rights, on both of which the Radical party has no credibility of any kind. As for Mr. Malic's fear of Soros, this also is not a major factor anymore, as the Populists/Radicals have just as much media presence in Serbia as do the Liberals/Democrats, (while it is true that overall the liberal B92 is the most popular TV station nationally). But even if B92 was banned, it is doubtful the the Radicals would win for the reasons stated above. Another reason why the Radicals cannot win is that a large part of their voters are basically protest voters, protesting in the past against the megalomania of the so-called Democrats (but Kostunica's party as well for that matter), while not at all subsribing to the ideas of Radicals or their overall claustrophobic world view. These voters, with these high stakes, will either vote for the Democrats or stay home. For this reason, it is unfortunate that the Poulist/Radical/nationalist block in these elections will not have KOstunica as it's face, as this might be the winning formula. He was able to present the nationalist cause in a positive manner (something that Mr. Nikolic, the radical standardbearer is unable to do) and therefore woo the middle of the road voters, people that are in many ways liberal but are nationalist as well. Now the face of the Nationalists will be Mr. Nikolic, whose image in the national conciousness is somewhat comparable to that od a mafia don. For this reason a case can be made that if he wins, it will mean the end of the democratic experiment in Serbia. It will be back to a one-party system again, this time with the Radicals. Should this happen, there is no doubt that NATO would move in, which they may do anyway under the pretext of stolen elections to establish order in the country.
Dr Trifkovic,
isn't it a bit selfish of Kostunica to insist on holding on to those 5 important ministries you mentioned above? As though the Radicals haven't got a plan of their own..?
Do the serbs not have a traditional orthodox theology like the Cossacks in Russia or the Boar in South Africa that they can unite and rally behind to defend there land?
Peter RV's (comment 71) scenario is plausible. I sincerely hope things do turn out that way.
However, I do not accept "... having realized Tadic’s treachery, Kostunica ..."
From the very start, Kostunica must have known very well with whom he was dealing (we all have!)
So, what was his "game"?
Why did he not ally with SRS at least a year ago, preferring an inane "balancing act" with Quisling? And then, even at a very late date - ahead of March presidential elections - he preferred to play coy "neutral"...
Ко с' Ђаволом тикве сади, о главу му се разбијају.
...Did you hear today news?
...Explosion in Albania:(
...so they say you could hear explosion in Macedonia,Montenegro,deep into Serbian land,..More that 100 ppl are dead and who knows how many hundreds are injured..
...What was that all about that Gods answer for unjust done to Serbian ppl,on Kosovo and Serbian in general.
..just prove:whenever somebone does something bad do not answer the same way,just sit down and watch:(
...By the way i feel sorry for any inosent ppl who lost life there and anywhere but
Michael Warning and similar mr/mrs Warnings
..don't you thing it was a Small Warning
to evrybody who touch Serbian Holly Land will be punish by the:
...Higer Power.
@Michael Warning (68):
I'm not sure what your point is. I've never written a word about Zoran Djindjic, here or elsewhere. In fact, the previous sentence is the first time I've ever typed his name, and I had to scroll back up the page to make sure that I had spelled it correctly.
Yovan D. (coment #75)
So, what was his(Kostunica's) “game”?
Good question.
I was observing this man ever since he became the PM.
I don't think he is a dishonest person such as Tadic & Co. His problem was that he thought he was clever enough to play a game of using these 'hohstaplers' in interest of Serbia vis-a-vie
Europe. This game is over now and he is not so dumb not to see that any attempt to continue with it, would amount to digging his own ,well deserved grave.
The time of playing innocence is over, we'll soon find out who is 'vjera' and who is 'nevjera'.
Was Burke an "enemy" of his country because he favored freedom for the American colonies or India? Was Lysander Spooner an "enemy" of the US because he favored independence for the Confederate states?
"15 March 2008, 16:50, Brussels [Tanjug]
French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner and former American representative for Balkan Richard Holbrooke displayed this evening a total lack of personal and diplomatic culture towards the head of Foreign Relations Committee of Russian Parliament (Duma), Konstantin Kosachov, when he was preparing to reply to a question concerning Kosovo, during a conference in Brussels.
Kouchner, Holbrooke and Kosachov were addressing the press at the end of a debate that was part of a three-day conference "Brussels Forum". At the moment when Kosachov was about to speak as the third guest at the conference, Kouchner embraced Holbrooke and they two abruptly left the podium, to the general surprise of the Russian parliamentarian, the present members of the press and the organizers.
..."
(http://www.tanjug.co.yu )
Mr Bailey,
the scenario you describe is unfortunately not unlikely, especially that Russia will probably only protest and offer a lousy moral support to Serbia, while the West will be busy with killing the Serbs.
However, you are wrong to interprete the split within Serbia as the one between the country and the city. This is a split between those who want to fight and those who want to surrender and applies both to country and the city, to any class of the Serbian society and any Serbian family.
Also, you are wrong to underestimate the Soros- and EU-funded propaganda. It is still a major factor and media landscape in Serbia is still extreemely unbalanced: not more than max. 5 % of all the media could be called "pro Populist/Radicals", to use your words.
The embracing of Holbrooke and Kouchner, which Jovan D reports (#80) should come as no surprise. These two individuals, besides being both Jews, have always had a visceral hatred for the Serbs.
Mr. R.V.M., after reading your comment I'm tending to agree with you. Hpwever I would still say that the Populists have a great deal of support within the state owned TV radio service run by Mr. Tijanic, the RTS, the oldest daily Politika, the largest evening paper Novosti, largest political weekly "NIN", not tho mention the paper that claims the greatest circulation in the region, called "Kurir". They all carry a nationalist point of view. However, I agree with you, they may not be a match for someone as experienced and as devious as the Soros operation, an organization that is without a doubt run by world class professionals. (that they are despicable is another matter)
On your other point, I think perhaps I did not make myself clear enough. It is true, as you say, that there is an almost universal resentment felt by the citizens of Serbia over Kosovo toward the West, encompassing the city and the country, but I doubt very much that the Radicals can succeed labeling anyone as traitors (the traitors of course are living in the city and enjoying "Western" lifestyles. Obviously not everyone in the city would be labeled as a traitor but pretty close) It will be hard for the Radicals to make it stick and therefore profit from it. Here I was referring to the cultural dichotomy between the city and the country in order to illustrate how the electorate can be broken down to recognize some voting patterns. As unfortunate as this is, it has been a fact of life in Serbia and in the region for a long time. It has been most pronounced in the times when the issues at hand were dominated by the economy. The cities (and most importantly Belgrade) get all the tax money and all the modern ("western") conveniences while the countryside feels neglected. Belgrade is resented by the rural population and this rural attitude has existed for over a century. The Radical party for example, was swept to power in the late 1800 by a landslide when this rural electorate punished the cities that were hopelessly corrupt and ruled by foreign interests. Eventually and violently even the ruling dinasty fell. ON the other hand, iN the recent times however, during the Milosevic era, nothing undermined this rural support for the populist parties more than his engineered hyperinflation! MIlosevic believed that he was financing his war from the savings, pension accounts and foreign currency remmitances of the middle class (i.e. city dwellers). However, unwittingly he hurt the rural population even more. It was the unavailability of short term credit and the lack of liquidity that ruined the farmers, even though they were able to get paid for their sales they were not able to produce. This might have been the biggest factor in Milosevic's downfall. His rock-solid constituency turned on him eventually. The populist parties have not been able to woo this constituency back ever to the degree that they had it earlier. The Radicals, the current most popular stripe of populism, has a tremendous problem winning over these rural voters in this type of election in great enough numbers. They recognize the Radicals' traditional anti-big city message and they like it. However, they also remember the hyperinflation and decide not to trust them. Without a comprehensive and credible economic quid pro quo in an all-or-nothing election, like the upcoming one is framed to be, these voters are likely to go with the parties that are in charge now and vote the way they did before. In other words, KOstunica, whatever his faults may be, is still the symbol of stability to these voters. This is why the Radicals should have invited him into a coalition. Without him at the helm of a Populist coalition, the Radicals may be dead in the water. Instead, These voters will go with the Kostunica's current coalition parties. (Mr. Dinkic of all people!) Unfortunately for the Radicals, tt's all about money nowadays, even in Serbia, no matter how appealing a populist message may be. As heartbreaking as the Kosovo issue is, and even though the Radicals may own it, it's not going to be enough to sweep them into power. (Perhaps discussing Kosovo in more practical terms would help. For examole, one aspect of the Kosovo issue that is never discussed (and perhaps Dr. Trifkovic will have an article on it some time), is what happens in the event that Kosovo is returned to Serbia. Do the Albanians participate in the Serb parliament? If in fact they do get to vote in it, would that not mean an almost permanent stranglehold on power for the Democrat led coalitions of the future? Or would the Albanians be asked to emigrate to Albania for let's say $5000o per person? Such "what if" negative implications of Kosovo on the economy should be talked about as Kosovo should not only be used as emotional issue).
This interchange between jack Baily and R.V.M. is a prime exemple of a false discussion (Noam Chomsky dixit) with a sole purpose of sidetracking the real issues.
We are invited to believe that the only question is to explain the the forthcoming Radical Party debacle, when in fact we all know that this party has grown considerably and chances are it will capture an absolute majority in the next Serbian Parliament.
'Populist' expression betrays their ideological background. This is a brand name for the U.S. propaganda machine uses to slight the democratically elected leaders-not to their imperialist likings.
(Hugo Chavez, Evo Morales,Rafael Correa etc..etc, never Musharaf, Uribe or Karzai ,or those Georgian and Ucainian satraps).
Oh now , we are discussing the horrors of Serbs threatened of losing their 'western style of life'. God forbid they lose their Nike trainers or blue jeans- they simply won't be able to bear it. And Coca Cola or Fanta? The thought should give every Serb goose bumps.
R.V.M. and Jack Baily are obviously poorely disguised Soros' boys trying to limit the damage the image Tadic and his KulturTraegers have suffered over Kosovo.
Peter RV.: precociousness per quoting Noam Chomsky of all people. And you forget that the biggest Kultur Traeger of all, Dr. Djinjic practically commited suicide after enjoying his Fanta. This is exactly why the Radicals will never win.
Mr.Baily,
Would you mind translating your last comment into some more intelligible language? You certainly lost me, mate.
OK Mr. Peter, I'll try. The days of "my way or highway" politics has passed even in countries like Serbia.
Peter RV's (comment 84) analysis is correct.
Concerning
"R.V.M. and Jack Bailey are obviously poorly disguised Soros’ boys trying to limit the damage the image Tadic and his Kulturträgers have suffered over Kosovo",
obviously indeed, and much too shabbily disguised at that. If these are samples of the best that Das eingebildete Imperium can put forth, there is hardly place for fear of its propaganda machinery in the coming 11 May elections.
@ Peter RV and Jovan D
I think you're both too harsh to Messrs. Bailey and RVM. I don't think they are advocating one outcome over the other; they are simply providing their analyses of the situation. Their analyses may be pessimistic but I don't perceive them as anti-Serb; quite to the contrary, they seem genuinely interested and well-meaning. It seems to me you didn't read their posts carefully.
@ Jack Bailey
You seem to think like a chess player, 20 moves ahead. While that is commendable and you seem to know a great deal about the situation in Serbia, I am just not convinced that the course of events in that part of the world is as predictable as your analysis would suggest. That doesn't diminish the value of trying to analyze potential outcomes; I'm simply saying that there could be any number of factors or unexpected turns that would bring an unexpected result.
Also, I have a very hard time believing that a) Radicals winning would be the end of the democratic experiment in Serbia, and b) that NATO would enter the country if Radicals won. I'll bet you $1,000 on each that won't happen. For one, democracy in Serbia, for better or worse, is older than the Radicals, and for the other, NATO doesn't have cojones to do a decent police job in Kosovo, let alone occupy Serbia.
Mr. Dzugashvili,
What business is of Baily's to analyse an event which will occur in about six weeks only, if not to try to influence it?
What is the point of 'predicting' an election outcome except for the purpose of propaganda?
He already 'knows' what the Serbs will decide on May 11,because they prefer their 'western way of life' (presumably implying - to their shabby Balkan existance). Very soon we'll find out whether that is the reality or not, but in the meanwhile we are assisting to an unprecedented effort by the EU and the US to make Baily's prophecies come true. Baily seems (or pretends)to be oblivious to all that, and finds absolutely no sympathy for a small Serbia telling NO to the big bullies that have been incessantly tormenting her for the last fifteen years.
Has he ever asked himself why Serbia can't be left alone to be Serbia?
It is obvious that he is aflicted by the Imperial fever.
@ Peter RV
I honestly don't see how Jack Bailey can influence the outcome of elections in Serbia by posting his analysis here on Chronicles. How many Serbs in Serbia actually follow Chronicles and take voting instructions from random posters such as Mr. Bailey? Be serious.
As for the rest of your reading of Mr. Bailey's comments, it seems to me you are projecting your hopes/fears/thoughts onto his writing. I don't think Mr. Bailey is saying what you claim he is saying. You don't have to agree with him, but it's not fair to put words in his mouth (e.g. he clearly stated that Soros's operation is despicable, with which hopefully both you and I agree).
If you disagree with someone on this forum you are free to refute them point by point (which I did at the end of #89 above, betting Mr. Bailey that the outcome won't be as he predicted), but unsupported assaults on someone are not exactly civilized. If you disagree with that, please refer to Marko Miljanov.
I am a girl, not a boy. And a Serb whose family had to leave Kosovo in the early 70es (I was a child back than), because we were terrorized day and night both by Albanians and Yugoslav communist authorities whose hater for Serbs was matching the Albanian one.
I agree with Mr. Bailey that it is a hubris of the Radical Party that they did not form a coalition with DSS now, with Vojislav Kostunica as a face of this coalition and DSS controling the key ministeries, thus risking that in the coming elections the scenario that Mr. Bailey so aptly described will come true (because West will pour enormous amounts of money to "pro-West" parties and Russia will not send the necessary military help to Serbia, well at least not any time soon). It is a vanity of Tomislav Nikolic. Why did they kick out Maja Gojkovic from the party, a woman who had a very reasonable chance to be successful against Boris Tadic in few years? I will be the happiest person if DSS and RS could form a coalition after the coming elections, but I am afraid that RS is risking too much and does not have the earnestness that this moment requires.
The purpose of analysing the events that will come in several weeks or months or even years is to plan and be well prepared. I am not saying that Serbs should not fight the unjustice, but this fight will be more difficult in the not unlikely case of traitors and CIA agents coming to power (THIS is going to be end of democracy. However, to be honest with you, I despise democracy, at least right now, I am concerned about the preservation of the Serbian state and the most effective way to fight the occupation of Serbian lands in Kosovo, Bosnia and elsewhere.)
I still disagree with Mr. Bailey on the point of the media landscape. The Soros- and EU- supported media are not more professional, they simply have more money, this is all (those less well educated, less capable and talented, those who otherwise would not be able to find a decent or any paid job went to Soros and are receiving various EU "grants".).
Yes, the question why Serbia is not left alone is a legitimate one, but hardly anyone commenting here questions the gigantic unjustice that is being done to the Serbian nation and the state and the monstrosity of the EU and USA and their respective policies.
Mr Dzugashvili, your condescending lecture on civilized behaviour and fairness are ,frankly, off mark . As for your granting me the right not to agree with somebody, sounds a bit ridiculous- as I have always considered that my- birthright.
For your information, Tovarishch, we all write with intention to influence. Otherwise, why would we bother?
I participate , and I am sure your friend Baily does, on many websites like this ,but indeed, I have no idea what the effect is.
My case is simple,I defend what I believe in, but I can also sense when somebody does it from other motives. Baily, for exemple,is reeking with insincerity. If you can't feel that, it is not my fault.
BTW, you and Baily do have a common trait. Both of you love to be sometimes incomprehensible: what has all this to do with Marko Miljanov?
Thank you Mr. Dzugashvili and Mr. R.V.M. for a decent discussion and yes, I do like chess a lot. We are basically in agreement, especially about the media financing, but I have a few minor additional points to make. Perhaps the Radicals would obey the rules of democracy, but I fear that they have not convinced the voters that this is so. A lack of democratic credentials is what makes Radicals scary to a certain segment of the voting public, who like the radical message but carry a long memory of past disappointments dating back to the years of the one party system in Serbia. This is why the Radicals need Kostunica, someone who is a proven champion of the democratic process. Apparently the Radicals do not see it that way. There is another reason why they need Kostunica: because the Radicals' cadres while formidable when it comes to organizing seem to work via simplistic solutions once in power. However the game that needs to be played once they are in power will require extraordinary amounts of sophistication, which these cadres do not have. In other words, to overcome these shortcomings, the Radicals should have the best qualified and available person, that is Kostunica, become what their famous leader Nikola Pasic once was, their own " man for all seasons". Without someone like Kostunica, they are not likely to make it. My last remark, (as this post is becoming way too long and there are new and interesting topics on this site already) would be that perhaps the NATO invasion scenario is somewhat farfetched, but who knows? I just read that the US is sending arms to KOsovo. Just coincidence? Or could it be that the Neocons are chessplayers themselves. Thank you for bearing with me.
I easily lay my cards on the table.
I was raised up as a Serb in my Montenegrin family and I intend to die as such.
It wasn't untill the vicious agression on my nation occurred that I
felt I had to defend it 'tooth and nail' against the subsequent diffamation and humiliation it was subjected.
For me, there are no such a thing as 'Serbian extremists' but there are the traitors of the Serbs who are trying to destroy our pride and our traditional values. We have them now as we had them in the past and it is our sacred duty to defeat them. We know their names and God willing we'll see their demise.
Anybody's talk against Slobodan Milosevic or Ratko Mladic will fall on a deaf ear, as far as I am concerned. I want to see first the justice for the Serbs. Here, of course, I consider all the Serbs, Kraina, Bosnia and Kosovo.
As a Montenegrin, I have a particular attachment to our Orthodox Russia, which I consider our only brotherly friend.
Finally, I wish Serbs would refuse to join the EU, with or without Kosovo, and follow our Slav tradition of looking towards the East.
Ex Oriente Lux.
I will never appologize for my feelings.
Just too bad for those who hope to re-educate me.
No, Mr Trifkovic, the masters in Foggy Bottom have never taken responsibility for any of their ill-conceived and stupid mistakes. The combined historical weight of their decisions will make up the comedy section in history books of the future. Never before has an empire shown its hand so frequently and so blatantly. Life in the homeland has gotten to be almost intolerable even while the overseas part is still expanding. There should be at least a couple of centuries of good living, America has had less than one.
That's the way it must be in the gonad-a-go-go age of instant gratification.
Srdja, I was thinkinking about the "lodger" on your site. who is "Michael Warning"? I think his name is Mohammad Megalommatis. He writes some articles for the American Chronicle, better to say he is self-posting them. His articles are lunacy of the first category, with no appology. He is repeatedly branding the Serbs "Nazi Hitlerites". So, it might be that he has discovered your site while trying mistakenly to log into his. Here we are...You have the lodger. Unfortunately.
And, as far as the topic is concerned, there is no doubt in my mind that the Radicals, Kostunica's DSS and SPS will have enough votes to create a new Government. It is even possible that the Radicals and DSS will be able to create the Government on their own.
No coallition between Tadic and Kostunica is possible anymore. Kostunica has every reason to mistrust Tadic and his lot because Tadic is the one who is blocking the Serbian action before The International Court of Justice at the moment. I consider those actions of Tadic and Jeremic to be outrageous. Why are they doing it? Answer is easy: to please their "partners" in the EU; but that is betrayal of Serbian people.
When someone steals something from you, what do you do? you sue! And that's it! Not in Tadic's world. But his blockade will not last for long.
Tadic and his lot will become the largest oppositon party in Serbia on 11 May 2008, no doubt.
Goran naively misses the truth
"Why are they doing it? Answer is easy: to please their “partners” in the EU; but that is betrayal of Serbian people."
There is no such a thing as "pleasing" in this game. Tadic, Jeremic and Co are ,as sure as it can be , on the payroll of the CIA, and their bank accounts in Switzerland are growing by the hour.
"betrayal of Serbian people" doesn't enter into their vocabulary,Goran, these are the people who have been assigned the task to convert Serbs into european sheep, and therefore obedient to any whim coming from the West. They are an international scum the Serbs shall have to eliminate from their midst, perhaps even physically.
Peter RV,
We are basically on the same line of thought. I very much appreciate your firm and unwaivering stance. I congratulate you on it, that is best expressed in your message No. 97.
Any self-respecting leadership would have taken legal action immediately after 17 February. Tadic and Jeremic are blocking it. It's shocking. It is shocking that Serbia has not sued states which illegally recognized the illegal "state" Kosovo. One has to be really out of order not to do it, while there are numerous international lawyers urging Tadic and Jeremic to do it. You may be well right. Money might be the key. I mean, money in their bank accounts.
Today, Jeremic says that he will ask the UN GA in September to request the Advisory Opinion on the legality of unilateral secession of Kosovo from the ICJ . But, why nor request that from the UN Security Council right now? Also, why not sue?
Their "idea" is to get into the EU (in say 7 years time) and fight for Kosovo. In 7 years time Kosovo might be part of Albania! Their rectoric is nothing but an empty smoke screen shell.
God Bless, Peter.
"...
Tadic, Jeremic and Co are ... an international scum the Serbs shall have to eliminate from their midst, perhaps even physically
..."
The sooner the better.
-------------
Reading today's (23 March 2008) press statements by Dr. Koštunica (http://www.dss.org.yu/newsitem.php?id=5544# ) and a SRS representative (http://www.srs.org.yu/index.php?a=92 ), I get the impression they are still (!) avoiding the issue of forming a coalition.
Watch a master diplomat in action (facing a direct question
). From the aforementioned Koštunica's interview [my translation]:
"...
Q. On the issue of defense of Kosovo, who is closer to you, Tomislav Nikolić or Boris Tadić?
A. I have participated in building a national policy and creating a consensus, which we achieved by introducing the Constitution through a referendum, that affirms that Kosovo is a constituent part of Serbia. We have been affirming this policy through parliamentary resolutions and it has been widely accepted. I am convinced that this policy has given a historical result, where I primarily have in mind the fact that a common policy with Russia prevented Security Council adoption of Ahtisaari plan, which would have represented legalization of creation of a NATO state on territory of Serbia. That policy represents a firm commitment for every future Government of ours to fight for right of and justice for Serbia.
"
"Jeremic says that he will ask the UN GA in September to request the Advisory Opinion on the legality of unilateral secession of Kosovo from the ICJ . But, why nor request that from the UN Security Council right now? Also, why not sue?
"
I'll tell you their answer : We are waiting to get inside Europe to sue "from inside".
I have some more questions for the Serbian spineless government, here are some of them.
1. What happened to the lawsuit presented to the International Court for the damage inflicted to Serbia by NATOs agression, initiated by Slobodan Milosevic?
2. Republika Srpska has performed an investigation over what exactly happened in Srebrenica ( finding only few hundred Muslim victims and most of them killed in combat). Serbian government wanted to make an investigation of its own, but gave up. Why?
3. Where did the five million dollar bounty for Milosevic's head finally end up?
4. Why is it that after five years of a judicial processes against aleged Djindjic's assassins, the public still have no idea of who killed him and why?
5. Why were't the autors of the illegal State of Emergency introduced after Djindjic's assassination, prosecuted?
6. Was Kostunica forced by the CIA to accept a number of ministers to its liking?
Maybe Srdja Trifkovic has some answers to these enigmas of the Serbian european Odissea.